- The Dallas Cowboys are -7.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers.
- Dallas has yet to lose a home game this season, scoring points at will.
- Why the market is overrating the Cowboys defense on Sunday.
Ahead of Sunday’s NFC wild-card matchup in Dallas, I’m here to offer a Cowboys vs. Packers prediction.
The Cowboys earned the No. 2 seed as NFC East division winners. Accordingly, they’ll play a home playoff game at a venue where they’ve yet to lose this season.
As for Green Bay, their Week 18 win over the Bears secured them the final NFC playoff spot. Entering Sunday’s matchup in Dallas, Green Bay has won three straight games.
Here’s a look at NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, along with my bets for the contest.
Cowboys vs. Packers Betting Odds
- Dallas Cowboys Moneyline: -350
- Green Bay Packers Moneyline: +275
- Game Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7.5
- Game Total: 50.5 Points
Cowboys vs. Packers Betting Predictions
Cowboys-Packers Total Over 50.5 Points (-110)
If there’s one thing we know about this game, it’s that Dallas should score at will.
This season, the Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home, the best mark in the NFL.
Granted, the Cowboys played the easiest set of defensive opponents this season, but they still produced strong performances against good defenses.
Dallas managed 30 points against the Jets (third in defensive DVOA) and 38 against the Patriots (ninth in defensive DVOA), per ftnfantasy.com.
Now they get a soft Packers defense that played an easy schedule. Green Bay is 27th in defensive DVOA, having faced the seventh-easiest set of opposing offenses.
If Green Bay is allowing 30 points to the Panthers on the road, their defense should be very worried against Dallas.
At the same time, Green Bay’s offense should contribute plenty against the Cowboys.
Although Dallas is fifth in defensive DVOA, they faced the ninth-easiest set of opposing offenses.
Shrink their schedule down to games against teams 16th or better in offensive DVOA – the Packers are sixth – and bettors will find Dallas surrendered 26.25 points per game.
Plus, the Packers have shown they can rack up points indoors in a hurry.
Against the Lions, they scored 29 points. At Minnesota, who finished 11th in defensive DVOA, they scored 33 points.
Moreover, since losing Trevon Diggs to injury, Dallas is 13th in pass EPA per play since Week 3. Over that same span, Green Bay is fifth in the corresponding offensive category.
As a result, expect Green Bay to record enough points to send this game over a high total.
Dak Prescott Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)
It’s going to be a long afternoon for the Packers pass defense.
To date, they’ve faced such an easy schedule in terms of playing quality quarterbacks.
Only three of their games saw them play a team 11th or better in pass offense DVOA with their starting quarterbacks, two of which came at home.
In their lone road game within that sample – a visit to Detroit on Thanksgiving – they surrendered 324 passing yards.
What’s even more worrisome about the Packers is that, despite their easy schedule, they ranked 23rd in dropback EPA per play.
Now, they face a Cowboys aerial attack that has thrived at home. Prescott is averaging 305.4 yards per game at AT&T Stadium and has cleared this number in five games.
Against a bad pass defense, back Prescott to clear this number for a sixth time.
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