NFL Best Bets: Week 4

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New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) warms up before an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J.
(AP Photo/Steve Luciano)
BetMGM @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 5:00 PM
  • Below are the BetMGM staff's favorite picks for Week 4.
  • Follow along all season.

Another NFL season is upon us.

Each week, writers and editors for The Roar will dig through the NFL odds to find their favorite bets for that particular week.

Here are the staff’s favorite plays for Week 4.

NFL Best Bets: Week 4

Chase Kiddy (Season Record 3-0)

Pick: Steelers -3 (vs Jets)

Zach Wilson is returning, and many bettors clearly think that’s a good thing for the Jets. The line has been sliding toward New York since the news was announced mid-week.

But is Wilson in this spot really an upgrade over the production that New York was already getting from Flacco? 

The second-year quarterback will make his first start of the season on the road against Pittsburgh’s defense. That unit clearly hasn’t been the same without TJ Watt, but it’s still a tough team to conquer in western Pennsylvania. 

This wasn’t strong play for me early in the week, but the Wilson news has created some value here. Snap up the -3 before sharp buyback erodes the Pittsburgh side of the market. 

Ryan Hannable (Season Record: 2-1)

Pick: Bills -3 (at Ravens)

Yes, the Bills are extremely banged up, but they are still the Super Bowl favorites. It’s hard to imagine them losing two straight games, especially this early in the season.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is 2-1 and Lamar Jackson is playing at a near MVP-type level. But, my issue with the Ravens is their defense. They are dead last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (353.3). That is over 50 yards more than the second-worst team.

The bulk of Buffalo’s injuries are on defense, so look for Josh Allen and Co. to take advantage of a poor Baltimore secondary. A shootout would certainly be welcomed by the Bills and help aid them to a win.

Colton Pool (Season Record: 2-1)

Pick: Vikings -2.5 (vs Saints)

The Saints are 1-2 but are not playing well right recently, having just lost to the Panthers 22-14 in Week 3. Now they have to travel to London.

Jameis Winston has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) through three games. Even against a Vikings defense that hasn’t been stellar, this Saints offense probably won’t click on this trip.

The Vikings offense hasn’t been flawless either, but Kirk Cousins put together a crucial bounce-back performance in a comeback victory over the Lions last week. Cousins and Justin Jefferson should thrive against this New Orleans secondary.

Dalvin Cook’s health is a concern for the Vikings, but I bet their run game will still be fine if Alexander Mattison receives a majority of the team’s rushing work.

Andy Coffaro (Season Record 1-2)

Pick: Rams ML +100 (at 49ers)

I’m clearly missing something here. 

The 49ers have looked awful through the first three games of the season. No, the 27-7 win over a rebuilding Seahawks squad in Week 2 means nothing.

The offense averaged 10 points per game in two embarrassing losses to the lowly Bears in Week 1 and an underwhelming Broncos team in Week 3. 

Their backup quarterback thinks the end zone is 11 yards when he’s not fumbling and throwing the ball to the wrong team.

The 49ers were a perplexing 1.5-point favorite last week at Denver, and it’s the same spread this Monday night at home to the defending Super Bowl champ Los Angeles Rams.

Forget the -110 juice on the spread. Give me the Rams to win straight up in a blowout.

Andrew Doughty (Season Record: 1-2)

Pick: Dolphins at Bengals Under 47

Regression was inevitable for the Cincinnati Bengals after last season’s playoff run. Now it’s time for regression from Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins’ offense against a suddenly undervalued Bengals’ defense.

Through three games, the Dolphins are averaging 0.497 points per play and 12.8 yards per point. Anything above 0.4 and below 14 is sensational for an entire season. 

And they’ve had a league-leading five plays of at least 40 yards. They had eight all of last season when no team had more than 18 (Los Angeles Rams).

Tua and the Dolphins can still be excellent against the Bengals without lighting up the scoreboard against a defense allowing just 4.4 yards per play at home this season.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.