NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 7

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 7 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 7 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

NFL best bets in this column are now 11-7 this season.

Lions at Cowboys (-7)

I don’t get all the Lions love permeating the handicapping media sphere this week. 

Sure, the Lions are an awesome dog to bet on because the backdoor is always open. But there’s a very clear reason why the Cowboys are targeting this particular game for Dak Prescott to return – the offense should put up monster numbers against this sorry Detroit defense.

The Dallas offense has pretty much exclusively played top-half defenses through the first six weeks of the season. Now, Prescott returns to vanquish a unit that ranks 31st according to PFF’s metrics.

I like Dallas to roll up a ton of offense and win this game, so I’ve bet Cowboys Team Total Over 27.5. The number has now moved to 28.5; I would still bet it there.

For this pick, though, I’ll back the Cowboys on the 1H line. I think Dallas will control the game early, and betting on the first-half number removes the possibility of a wild Detroit comeback that spoils the cover.

Play: Cowboys 1H -4

Packers at Commanders (+4.5)

I’ve wanted to bet on Washington for weeks, but the online sportsbook has never hung an enticing line for Washington bettors – lots of -1 and +2. Bleh.

Finally, with Green Bay coming to town and Carson Wentz headed to the surgical suite, the Commanders are afforded a good number. 

The return to Taylor Heinicke under center will bring about a conservative, run-oriented game plan that should keep the game close. 

On the other side, I don’t know how anyone can lay points on the road with this Packers squad right now. The loss of Randall Cobb certainly doesn’t make anything better.

Washington will likely find a way to lose this game, but I’m taking the points.

Play: Commanders +4.5

Texans at Raiders (-7)

The Texans continue to be one of the league’s best cover teams because everyone thinks they stink. But there’s a big difference between having a bad record (they’re 1-3-1 straight up) and being a bad cover team (they’re 3-1-1 ATS against closing numbers and 4-1 if you bet them early).

Here, the Texans come off a bye and hit the road as a 7-point dog in Las Vegas against the talented but inconsistent Raiders. 

Unsurprisingly, more than 60% of the market-wide tickets are on Las Vegas. The perception of Houston remains bad.

However, nearly 90% of the overall market handle is behind the Texans. Sharp bettors are paying attention and know this Texans team is a mediocre team that’s being handicapped like a bad one. 

There’s definitely a market gap to be exploited. As a result, this is one of the week’s biggest Pros vs. Joes games.

Play: Texans +7

NFL Parlay for Week 7

This week, I’ve created a nice moneyline parlay around three favorites with a high degree of confidence. That’s pretty rare this season, given how poorly favorites have played.

• Cowboys -300 (vs. Lions)
• Ravens -275 (vs. Browns)
• Patriots -375 (vs. Bears)

This three-team parlay adds up to a price of +130

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 7 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.