3 NFL Betting Trends for Week 11

With four teams on bye in Week 11 – the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – odds for 14 NFL games are available at BetMGM this week.

The schedule starts with the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football and ends with the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Here are three NFL betting trends to consider for Week 11:

Spread Underdogs

“If you just bet touchdown or better underdogs this season, you’d be crushing it,” tweeted Pete Bukowski, host of Locked On Packers, after the Washington Commanders’ win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday.

That’s an understatement. 

After a historically terrible ATS season in 2021 – a cover rate of .447 and ROI of -14% were among the worst in the last 20 years – dogs of at least seven points are covering at a 65% clip. The Commanders’ cover on Monday Night Football was the 22nd ATS win in 34 opportunities, an ROI of +23.8%.

The best ROI in the two decades for this trend was +14.3% in 2015. 

As of Wednesday, there are three teams in this spot for Week 11: 

• Cleveland Browns (+8) at Buffalo Bills
• Carolina Panthers (+12) at Baltimore Ravens
• Arizona Cardinals (+8) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Moneyline Underdogs

Sizable spread underdogs are also winning outright at a staggering clip.

Dogs of at least seven points won outright in only 16 of 87 opportunities last season, a winning percentage of .184. The Commanders’ win was already the 10th moneyline win this year in 34 opportunities, a winning percentage of .303, by far the best in the last 20 years.

Those teams have delivered an ROI of +33.7%.

There will undoubtedly be a market correction in the near future but clearly the public is still crushing it for now.

Kyle Shanahan in Primetime

With the San Francisco 49ers playing in primetime again in Week 11, let’s revisit last week’s primetime trend for Kyle Shanahan:

Shanahan’s 49ers covered in three of his first four regular-season primetime games as head coach. Since then they are 6-11 ATS, including 3-8 the last three seasons (2020-22), including a failed cover in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10.

In all other games in the last three seasons, Shanahan is 17-14 ATS.

There are 14 other active coaches who’ve been in their current position since 2020. Shanahan has the worst primetime cover rate (.272) and ROI (-47.7%) among them.