How Real is Homefield Advantage in NFL Betting?

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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) plays
(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Colton Pool @CPoolReporter Jan 05, 2023, 7:15 PM
  • Home teams are having one of their best seasons in years.
  • Yet they still haven’t had a winning record ATS since 2017.

Home teams often have the better NFL odds to win, and 2022 has been no exception; the home team has been favored in approximately 60% of games. But in the past 20 seasons, home teams haven’t been very successful against the spread.

In fact, in the past 20 seasons, home teams have finished with winning records ATS only five times. The last time that happened was in 2017.

But that could change in 2022.

NFL Homefield Advantage

Home teams in the NFL are 134-107-2 overall in 2022 heading into Week 18. That’s a .556 win percentage.

NFL teams at home have collectively finished above .500 each season for the past two decades. The best win percentage during that time was 2003 when those squads went 157-99, a .613 win percentage.

YearMoneylineWin Pct.
2022134-107-20.556
2021137-131-10.511
2020127-125-10.504
2019130-120-10.52
2018152-99-20.605
2017143-108-00.57
2016145-106-10.577
2015136-117-00.538
2014144-107-10.573
2013152-101-10.6
2012146-108-10.575
2011145-110-00.569
2010142-111-00.561
2009146-108-00.575
2008145-109-10.571
2007140-105-00.571
2006136-120-00.531
2005150-98-00.605
2004145-111-00.566
2003157-99-00.613

Home Teams vs. The Spread

NFL teams at home are 118-121-4 against the spread in 2022 before Week 18 for a win percentage of .494. However, with 16 games set to take place in the final week of the season, that percentage could go over .500.

The last time home teams had a winning record ATS was 2017 when they were 128-115-8 (.526). The best win percentage ATS for teams at home in the past 20 years was .528 in 2013 when they were 131-117-6.

YearHome Teams ATSATS Pct.
2022118-121-40.494
2021126-140-30.474
2020126-127-00.498
2019103-137-110.432
2018119-125-90.488
2017128-115-80.526
2016120-126-60.488
2015112-133-80.458
2014121-125-60.492
2013131-117-60.528
2012118-132-50.473
2011121-123-110.496
2010123-126-40.494
2009115-131-80.469
2008113-136-60.455
2007127-123-50.508
2006121-128-70.486
2005122-119-70.506
2004115-132-90.467
2003125-118-130.514

Home Teams in the First Half

NFL teams when hosting have ended the first half with a lead in 116 of 243 games going into Week 18 of 2022. That’s a win percentage of .533.

Against the spread, home teams are 131-118-1 after the first half in 2022 for a win percentage of .526. 

Either against the spread or straight up, home teams are usually successful in the first half of games.

Since 2005, home teams have had winning percentages straight up in all but one of those seasons. Against the spread, they’ve had winning percentages in 10 of those 18 years.

Year1H ATS1H ATS Pct.
2022131-118-10.526
2021126-138-50.478
2020114-132-70.464
2019118-130-30.476
2018135-118-00.534
2017132-116-30.532
2016132-113-70.538
2015125-124-40.502
2014116-129-70.474
2013126-127-10.498
2012123-125-70.496
2011126-120-90.512
2010108-134-110.449
2009130-116-80.528
2008126-121-80.51
2007139-114-20.549
2006116-133-70.467
2005128-112-80.532

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About the Author

Colton Pool

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Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.

Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.