How Real is Homefield Advantage in NFL Betting?

Home teams often have the better NFL odds to win, and 2022 has been no exception; the home team has been favored in approximately 60% of games. But in the past 20 seasons, home teams haven’t been very successful against the spread.

In fact, in the past 20 seasons, home teams have finished with winning records ATS only five times. The last time that happened was in 2017.

But that could change in 2022.

NFL Homefield Advantage

Home teams in the NFL are 134-107-2 overall in 2022 heading into Week 18. That’s a .556 win percentage.

NFL teams at home have collectively finished above .500 each season for the past two decades. The best win percentage during that time was 2003 when those squads went 157-99, a .613 win percentage.

Home Teams vs. The Spread

NFL teams at home are 118-121-4 against the spread in 2022 before Week 18 for a win percentage of .494. However, with 16 games set to take place in the final week of the season, that percentage could go over .500.

The last time home teams had a winning record ATS was 2017 when they were 128-115-8 (.526). The best win percentage ATS for teams at home in the past 20 years was .528 in 2013 when they were 131-117-6.

Home Teams in the First Half

NFL teams when hosting have ended the first half with a lead in 116 of 243 games going into Week 18 of 2022. That’s a win percentage of .533.

Against the spread, home teams are 131-118-1 after the first half in 2022 for a win percentage of .526. 

Either against the spread or straight up, home teams are usually successful in the first half of games.

Since 2005, home teams have had winning percentages straight up in all but one of those seasons. Against the spread, they’ve had winning percentages in 10 of those 18 years.