NFL Prop Bets: Today’s Best Bets for Player Props Week 3

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to throw during the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo.
(Charlie Riedel/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 22, 2023, 5:42 PM
  • Why I'm confident in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
  • Can Josh Jacobs exploit the Steelers run defense?
  • The case for an air show in Vikings vs. Chargers

While most football bettors will focus on spreads and/or totals, the wide-ranging player prop market provides more markets to consider. 

Below are all my player prop bets for Week 3 of the NFL regular season. 

The slate gets underway Thursday with 49ers vs. Giants and also includes a Monday Night Football double-header featuring Eagles vs. Buccaneers and Bengals vs. Rams. 

NFL odds are reflective at time of writing. 

NFL Week 3 Player Prop Bets

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 24

Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 Passing Yards (-115) 

There’s definitely a script where the Chiefs race out to a big lead and run the ball to finish the game. 

That said, Mahomes has cleared his yardage prop in 11 of his last 15 contests, and faces a weak Bears pass defense. Through two weeks, Chicago ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, per, along with 26th in total defensive DVOA. 

Last season, Chicago ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Their defensive coordinator also just resigned, which should leave their already bad defense in shambles. 

That’s a gift for Mahomes and the Chiefs, who rank seventh in pass offense DVOA entering this game and ranked first in that metric last season. 

Plus, across five 2022 regular season games against sides ranked 22nd or worse in pass defense DVOA, Mahomes cleared this number four times. Of those four successes, he eclipsed 300 yards three times. 

Given those results, take the over on an admittedly high number. 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 24

Kirk Cousins Under 0.5 Interception (+120) 

This is strictly a price play for me given the perception Cousins is turnover-happy. 

The truth actually rests on the other side. Last season, Cousins didn’t throw an interception in 10 of his 18 games (playoffs included). 

In 10 home games, Cousins cashed the under on this interception prop in all but three contests. 

Books appear to be certain the Chargers will turn him over, but I don’t believe it. Entering this game, the Chargers rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA, per 

That’s a big drop-off from last season, when Los Angeles ranked 11th in that category. 

The one worry is that Los Angeles forced a turnover in every road game bar one last season. However, that record received a blemish in Week 2, when they recorded zero turnover-worthy plays against Ryan Tannehill, per PFF. 

Time will tell if Cousins’ positive record continues, but I’m willing to take a shot at +120 to find out. 

Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

Give Minnesota credit for ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA through the first two weeks. 

However, it’s my opinion that ranking speaks more about their opposition strategy rather than any kind of functionality. 

The Chargers (likely) won’t have Austin Ekeler for the second straight week, forcing them into a pass-heavy gameplan. That will work just fine against the Vikings, who ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA a season ago. 

In Ekeler’s absence, Allen racked up 10 targets against Tennessee after receiving nine in Week 1 against Miami. 

These throws are remarkably accurate, too, with Allen reeling in 14 catches over that span. In terms of this number, he grabbed eight balls last week after hauling in six catches Week 1. 

With a pass-heavy approach, expect Allen to surpass this number for the second straight week. 

George Pickens Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

With Diontae Johnson out for two more weeks, Pickens should continue to receive a high target share. 

Last week against the Browns, the Georgia product saw three extra targets week-over-week. Although nearly half of his 136 yards came on one catch and run, he profiles well against the Raiders. 

Last season, Las Vegas ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA. In a head-to-head meeting with Pittsburgh, Las Vegas allowed Pickens to catch five passes for 57 yards. 

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett threw 39 passes in that game. That Steelers strategy suggests they’ll attempt to avoid a strong Raiders defensive line. 

Add in the Steelers’ underdog status – oddsmakers expect a negative gamescript, leading to more pass attempts – and Pickens should clear this yardage total for the second straight contest.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 24

Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Time to buy Jacobs fresh off one of his worst performances for his career. 

Against a stout Bills run defense, Jacobs recorded -2 yards (yes, you read that correctly) on only nine carries. However, that functioned because of a quick deficit for Las Vegas, who called 24 passes on 39 plays. 

However, Jacobs now faces a Steelers defense ripe for the taking. 

Prior to his injury, Nick Chubb amassed 64 yards on 10 carries. In Week 1, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey racked up 152 yards on 6.91 yards per carry. 

Those poor metrics likely can be attributed to Cam Heyward’s absence. Without him, the Steelers run defense – 21st in rush defense DVOA – won’t stop many backs. 

Jacobs hasn’t cleared this number this season, but did so nine times last campaign. 

Until the Steelers show signs of life, fade their run defense on a short week. 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 24

James Conner Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

What a difference a week makes. 

Conner faced a horrific Giants run defense in Week 2, rushing for 106 yards. 

In Week 3, he turns around to face the Cowboys, who sit first in rush defense DVOA, per 

This comes a season after the Cowboys ranked seventh in that category last season. 

Plus, Conner struggled to clear this number regularly last season. Although he cleared this number eight times last season, two came via the hook. 

The competition wasn’t exactly fierce, either, with Conner facing only one top-10 rushing defense last season. In that game, he rushed for only 42 yards. 

Add in the fact Arizona will likely play from behind and opt for a pass-heavy approach and I’ll support the under on Conner.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 25

Rachaad White Under 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120) 

The Eagles secondary is banged up right now, but they’ve looked solid against the run. 

Through two weeks, Philadelphia ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA a season after ranking 19th in that category, per 

Although some of that record can be attributed to playing a pass-heavy Vikings team and having a big lead against the Patriots, the Eagles could very well limit White. 

Plus, this rates a great sell-high spot on White, who amassed 103 rushing and receiving yards in Week 2. However, that came against the Bears, who possess arguably the worst defense in the league. 

In Week 1 against Minnesota, White posted only 49 rushing and receiving yards against the Vikings. Dating back to last season, White cleared this number only four times. 

As a result, take the under Monday night against a good Eagles defense on extended rest. 

Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interception (-120)

Mayfield has avoided interceptions in each of his first two games, rendering this a great sell-high spot. 

The Eagles pass defense looked terrible against the Vikings in Week 2. However, two key Eagles defensive players – safety Reed Blankenship and corner James Bradberry – are trending toward playing on Monday. 

Given those returns, I believe bettors will see a return to form for an Eagles team that ranked first in pass defense DVOA last season and forced an interception from Mac Jones in Week 1. 

Plus, Mayfield produced one turnover-worthy play against Chicago in Week 2, suggesting there could be some negative regression against the Eagles. 

Add in the Eagles have forced at least one turnover in all but two of their last 22 games and I suspect Mayfield will toss an interception come Monday. 

Back the over at -130 or better.

What is an NFL Prop Bet?

NFL prop bets are a unique opportunity to bet on specific areas of a game. You could, for example, bet on the total passing yards for a quarterback or if a team will have more or fewer than a number of rushing yards.

There are dozens of different prop bets – and hundreds of choices and thousands of prop bet parlay combinations – available for each NFL game.

Types of NFL Prop Bets

BetMGM has a wide selection of player and game prop bets available for each game. The most popular types of player props include ones like:

  • First Touchdown Scorer
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Total Receiving Yards by a Player
  • Total Rushing Yards by a Player
  • Total Receptions by a Player
  • Total Passing Yards by a Player

The most popular types of game prop bets include ones like:

  • Winning Margin: Packers by 1-6
  • Will the game go into overtime?
  • Both teams to score 20 or more points
  • Will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half?

How To Bet NFL Prop Bets

It’s never been easier to bet on NFL odds at the online sportsbook.

To view available props for each game, visit the NFL betting page and select a game. You can view all available bets or sort by type, e.g., player TDs, player props, or game props.

Once you spot a favorable number or bet that will add more excitement as you watch that game, add it to your bet slip, add a stake, and place your bet.

Bet on NFL Odds at BetMGM

At the best online sportsbook, there are hundreds of opportunities to bet on NFL odds. Whether you’re new to NFL betting, a casual fan browsing spreads, or a seasoned pro breaking down Super Bowl prop bets, anyone can place a bet online!

If you’re new to the sportsbook, register today with BetMGM’s welcome promo. And check out updated sportsbook promos each day of the year.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.