Raiders vs. Chargers Prediction: 2 Bets for Week 15, Thursday Night Football

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Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) warms up before an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023, in Las Vegas.
(John Locher/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Dec 12, 2023, 7:25 PM
  • The Raiders are -3 against the Chargers.
  • Justin Herbert and Josh Jacobs are out for the Chargers and Raiders, respectively.
  • Los Angeles earned a home win in their last head-to-head meeting.

Ahead of Week 15’s Thursday Night Football contest, I’m here to provide a pair of Raiders vs. Chargers predictions. 

The Raiders are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Vikings. That marks their third straight defeat after capturing two wins in a row under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. 

The Chargers, meanwhile, lost at home to the Broncos on Sunday. 

In the process, head coach Brandon Staley’s side also lost starting quarterback Justin Herbert for the remainder of the season due to a finger injury. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Thursday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Raiders vs. Chargers Betting Odds

  • Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline: -160
  • Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline: +135
  • Game Spread: Las Vegas Raiders -3
  • Game Total: 34 Points

Raiders vs. Chargers Predictions

Chargers-Raiders Total Under 34 Points (-110) 

Easton Stick vs. Aidan O’Connell. Just like the schedule makers drew it up. 

In addition to Justin Herbert likely not playing, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs exited the game Sunday. Without him, I question how Las Vegas generates much offense. 

Additionally, the Chargers have shown they can limit bad offenses. In five games against sides 22nd or worse in offensive DVOA, they’ve allowed 12 points per game. 

At the same time, the Raiders have proved a very tough defense at home. Including Sunday’s showing against the Vikings, Las Vegas has allowed only 15 points per game at home. 

In three home games under Antonio Pierce, they’ve allowed only 21 combined points against sides outside the top 10 in offensive DVOA. 

The only area Las Vegas struggles is against the run – they sit 26th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

However, the Chargers offer virtually no running threat, as they’re 25th in the corresponding offensive category. 

Finally, primetime unders are 60% to the under since 2018-19. Both teams are also 10-3 to the under this season, a trend I expect to continue. 

Davante Adams Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

Without Josh Jacobs available for Las Vegas, I expect the Raiders will emphasize getting the ball in Adams’ hands. 

On occasions where Aidan O’Connell starts for the Raiders, Adams has excelled at clearing this number. 

In six games with O’Connell at quarterback, Adams has surpassed this number on four occasions. 

Even when you factor in his lackluster 34-yard performance against the Giants, the Fresno State product is still averaging 67.2 yards per game in those six contests. 

Included in that sample is his Week 4 performance against the Chargers, who allowed Adams to produce eight catches for 75 yards. 

That’s indicative of the Chargers’ poor record at defending the pass, specifically WR1’s. 

Los Angeles sits 29th in DVOA against top wideouts. To date, they’ve allowed nine catches for 87.4 yards on average to such players. 

As a result, take Adams to clear his yardage prop for the second time against the Chargers.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.