Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Two Longshots Worth a Bet

min read
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) plays against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
(Jed Jacobsohn/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 11, 2024, 2:29 PM
  • Patrick Mahomes (+120) is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP.
  • Historically, quarterbacks have dominated the award.
  • Recently, wide receivers have experienced success in the MVP voting.

Before Super Bowl LVIII kicks off from Las Vegas, I’m here to offer a pair of Super Bowl MVP predictions. 

At BetMGM online sportsbook, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+120) is the favorite to win the award. 

Mahomes earned MVP honors in the Chiefs’ win over the Eagles last year, and a win here would mark his third time claiming Super Bowl MVP. 

Next on the odds board is 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (+220) is next up on the odds board, while teammate Christian McCaffrey is +450. 

Those NFL betting lines reflect the fact this is a quarterback’s award. 

Since the 2000 Super Bowl, signal callers have claimed 15 Super Bowl MVPs, including three of the last four years. 

Super Bowl MVP Predictions

Travis Kelce (+1200) to Win Super Bowl MVP

There’s no denying Mahomes is the likeliest Chief to win this award, especially as the NFL seeks to make him the face of the league. 

But bettors should do well to remember you’re handicapping voters in this market, and maybe there’s a bit of voter fatigue from constantly handing Mahomes the award. 

Plus, dating back to the 2000 Super Bowl, wide receivers have won the award five times, including twice in the last five years. 

However, given the Chiefs don’t possess a prolific receiver, I’ll settle for Kelce, who would become the first tight end to win the award. 

Kelce also broke Jerry Rice’s postseason reception record in the AFC Championship. 

Voters could acknowledge that feat by Kelce if he produces another outstanding performance in Super Bowl LVIII and scores multiple touchdowns – Kelce is only three touchdowns behind Rice for postseason touchdowns. 

Of Mahomes’ four postseason touchdowns this year, three have gone to Kelce. 

If he’s able to bag two or more touchdowns, Kelce is absolutely worth a flier at 12/1. 

Deebo Samuel (+3000) to Win Super Bowl MVP

It’s a steep climb for Samuel to win this honor, as implied by his odds. 

However, Samuel’s threat on the ground and through the air renders him capable of an explosive performance voters can’t ignore. 

Back in Super Bowl LIV against the Chiefs, Samuel rushed for 53 yards on the ground and added 39 yards through the air. 

Granted, that came before the arrival of Christian McCaffrey. However, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has used Samuel in spades recently. 

He notched 96 all-purpose yards in the NFC Championship against Detroit. Further, he exploded for 138 all-purpose yards against the Eagles. 

The Chiefs defense represents a stiff test compared to the Packers and 49ers, but they still struggle to defend the run. 

That could open the door for Samuel to break a big run and potentially score. 

If he adds a touchdown through the air, it could allow him to steal the award from Purdy. 

Bottom-line: he’s worth a flier at 30/1.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.