AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

This week on the PGA Tour is the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the season’s second and final Pro-Am event.

With it being the week before a designated event (WM Phoenix Open), many players are taking it off. As a result, only three of the top 16 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field (Matt Fitzpatrick, No. 10, Viktor Hovland No., 11 and Jordan Spieth, No. 16). 

In addition, seven players are in the top 50, and 23 are in the top 100.

The players will play three courses the first three days (Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club) before the field is cut for the final round at Pebble Beach. 

This is the final tournament of the year, where multiple courses are used.

Regarding key metrics to look for, it will be different than some of the recent courses on the West Coast. Pebble Beach has some of the smallest greens on Tour, and the greens at the other two courses aren’t very big, either.

The longest course of the three is Spyglass Hills at just over 7,000 yards, so length isn’t very important, and players will likely be hitting a lot of wedge shots. 

I will prioritize the best ball-strikers and players who take advantage of short approach shots. In addition, this is another week of poa greens, so players who putt well on poa should get extra consideration. 

Winners at the event in the past have come from all over the odds board, ranging from big-time favorites like Jordan Spieth (2017) to longshots like Nick Taylor (2020) and Ted Potter Jr. (2018). 

The winning scores have been fairly consistent, as the winning score has been between -16 and -19 every year since 2016. This indicates plenty of birdies will be made over the four days.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions

Matt Fitzpatrick is predicted to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a 10% implied probability, according to betting markets.

Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland have the next best odds to win with a 9.09% implied probability, followed by Tom Hoge, Maverick McNealy and Seamus Power at 4.76%.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick +900 Odds to Win

At No. 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Fitzpatrick is the best player in the field. With few other top-tier players in the field, the reigning U.S. Open champion, who finished T-6 at this event last year, is certainly worth a look.

The +900 price isn’t the best value, but Jon Rahm has shown the last few weeks sometimes the favorite wins.

Jordan Spieth +1000 Odds to Win

Spieth is virtually an auto-play at this event, logging finishes of second, T-3 and T-9 the last three years. He seems to love the course, and if he can get his putter going, he will be very hard to beat. 

While the number isn’t great, the weak field makes him worth a shot.

Seamus Power +2000 Odds to Win

With a weak field, Power is one of the better players, even though he is No. 28 in the world. He finished T-9 at the event a year ago and has three top-10 finishes in seven starts this season.

Power is worth a look this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleepers

David Lipsky +6600 Odds to Win

Lipsky was surprisingly No. 1 in my model at Fantasy National this week, as he ranks very high in all the key metrics mentioned above. He finished T-24 last year, his only ever appearance at the event, so he may be worth a shot not only as a long shot to win but with some props as well.

Kevin Streelman +10000 Odds to Win

Course history tends to play more of a factor at this tournament than others, and not many players have performed better at Pebble Beach than Streelman. Although he missed the cut last year, since 2016, he’s finished in the top 17 all six times. 

He isn’t playing well of late (missed cuts in three of his last five events), but this could be where he gets back on track.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Seamus Power Outright Win +2000
• Ben Griffin Outright Win +6000
• Robby Shelton Outright Win +6600
• David Lipsky Outright Win +6600
• Marcel Siem Outright Win +30000
• Jordan Spieth Top-5 Finish +225
• Russell Knox Top-20 Finish +270

Once again, I’m relying heavily on my Fantasy National model. My top 10 was: Lipsky, Shelton, Knox, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Streelman, Power, Siem, Griffin, Matthew NeSmith and Spieth.

Given the unpredictability of the event, I went with a number of longshots. It seems this is one of the few tournaments over the course of the year where truly anyone can win. 

As for props, it’s so hard to bet against Spieth, given his play of late at the tournament, and Knox ranks high in my model and has three top-15 finishes in his last five starts at the event.