- Phillies / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+150) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-185) on Thursday, February 29, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 1-2 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +150 |
| Blue Jays | -185 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.85 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 3-1 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 31.93% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 3.06% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 38.95% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -50.6% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 1-2 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -32.26% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 11.65% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 22.86% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -35.48% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Maximo Castillo has limited playing time.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios attempted to pick off a runner at second base 17 timesin the 2023 season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .139 (52-for-374) against Jose Berrios with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 91st Percentile.
Jose Berrios struck out 47 batters on three pitches in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.
46 of Jose Berrios’ 184 strikeouts (25%) came on changeups in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 91st Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers won 40% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
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