- Arsenal is predicted to be a -1.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Arsenal has won five of its last six EPL matches against Brentford.
- My Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
Seeking a fourth straight win over their London counterparts, Arsenal host Brentford at the Emirates on Saturday.
Arsenal dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Everton on Matchday 31, their 11th draw of the season. With Liverpool’s loss, Arsenal now sits 11 points adrift of the league lead.
Brentford played to a 0-0 draw against Chelsea, extending their home winless run to eight. Earlier this season, Brentford fell 3-1 as home dogs to Arsenal.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction.
Arsenal vs Brentford: Premier League Odds
- Arsenal Moneyline: -165
- Brentford Moneyline: +425
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-135), “No” (-105)
Brentford vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s previous offensive success against Brentford and Arsenal’s defensive absentees, my Arsenal vs Brentford prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
There’s an argument to be made that Arsenal can clear this total on their own.
Earlier this season, Mikel Arteta’s side went to Brentford sans Bukayo Saka and created 3.16 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
In their most recent home match against Fulham – third in both expected goals and post-shot xGA – the Gooners created 2.2 xG and 1.8 post-shot xG.
Pinpointing the exact quality of Brentford is difficult, but they rank 14th in xGA and 13th in post-shot xGA. Away from home, they’ve seen eight of 15 opponents score at least twice.
Improvement has come recently – only one of Brentford’s last seven trips saw the opposition score twice – but it coincided with the easier part of their schedule.
At the same time, there’s a case for optimism with Brentford’s attack, especially amidst Arsenal’s defensive injury crisis.
Arsenal lost central defender Gabriel for the year and faces Brentford in between two legs against Real Madrid in the Champions League.
For all of Arsenal’s defensive success this season – first in both xGA and post-shot xGA – they’ve kept only three clean sheets since February.
In Arsenal’s 10 matches this year following a Champions League match, opponents found the net seven times.
This game also matches a historically profitable system suggesting goals could flow.
Since 2012, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 100-55 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.4 and 1.8
Just over the last two seasons, those matches are 35-14 to the over, including 26-5 when the road team earned points in their last match.
As a result, it’s the over or nothing for me on Saturday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | Apr. 12 | 7:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Aston Villa | Apr. 12 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | Leicester City | Apr. 12 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Nottingham Forest | Everton | Apr. 12 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Arsenal | Brentford | Apr. 12 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Liverpool | West Ham | Apr. 13 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Chelsea | Ipswich Town | Apr. 13 | 9 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Wolves | Tottenham | Apr. 13 | 9 a.m. | Molineux |
| Newcastle | Manchester United | Apr. 13 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Fulham | Apr. 14 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 17-13-1 | 56.5% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-10-3 | 62.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-3-3 | 70.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Fulham | 13-9-9 | 48 | 5 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 12-9-10 | 45 | 11 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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