Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

It’s a London Derby with title implications as Arsenal welcome Chelsea to the Emirates for a midweek Premier League clash. 

When these sides met last, Chelsea captured a 2-2 draw as home underdogs. However, the last time they met at the Emirates, Arsenal handed the Blues a 3-1 defeat. 

That marks three wins in the last four meetings for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Chelsea

• Arsenal Moneyline: -210
• Chelsea Moneyline: +500
• Draw Moneyline: +360
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-110) 

Recently, Chelsea have not performed well as an underdog in terms of winning games outright. 

Across the last three seasons, Chelsea holds only one outright win in 19 tries as an underdog. In those 19 games, they’re 1-7-11 (W-D-L). 

The lone win? At Tottenham, which saw two players sent off in the first half. 

Although they captured a point at Stamford Bridge against Arsenal, their goals were quite lucky. 

They scored an early penalty off a handball in the box and scored their second goal off a shot worth 0.03 expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Eliminate the penalty and bettors will find Chelsea scored once off 0.56 expected at home against Arsenal. 

To be fair, Arsenal also overperformed their underlying metrics. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side scored two goals off 0.99 xG and 0.82 psxG, according to fotmob.com. 

However, this is a Chelsea defense ripe for the taking at the moment. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Blues have surrendered 1.58 expected goals. Sample trips to Liverpool and Manchester City and it becomes 2.75 xGA per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Their road form has also proved very bad recently against bottom-half sides. In their last two road games – Brentford and Sheffield United – Chelsea have allowed 1.8 psxG per 90. 

That should put them in deep trouble against an Arsenal attack which has created at least 1.5 xG in all but four home matches this season. 

Plus, Arsenal are unbeaten this season at home in games where they score at least two goals (W11-D2) with one draw undeserved by expected goals. 

All that said, I’ll be surprised if Arsenal keeps Chelsea off the scoresheet on short rest. 

Chelsea have found the net in 15 straight games, including trips as underdogs to Manchester City and Liverpool. 

Both teams have scored in three of the last four meetings between these sides. 

As a result, I’ll back the game to clear 2.5 goals along with Arsenal’s moneyline, the likeliest outcome based on Chelsea’s underdog form. 

Arsenal Form 

April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W

April 17 at Bayern Munich: 1-0, L (Champions League)

April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W

Chelsea Form

April 20 vs. Manchester City: 0-1, L (FA Cup) 

April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W

April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D

April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W

March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

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