Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez smiles during the English Premier League soccer match between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest at Stamford Bridge stadium in London, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023.
(Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 21, 2024, 6:08 PM
  • Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
  • These sides drew 2-2 in their meeting at Stamford Bridge.
  • Take advantage of this Same Game Parlay for Tuesday’s meeting.

It’s a London Derby with title implications as Arsenal welcome Chelsea to the Emirates for a midweek Premier League clash. 

When these sides met last, Chelsea captured a 2-2 draw as home underdogs. However, the last time they met at the Emirates, Arsenal handed the Blues a 3-1 defeat. 

That marks three wins in the last four meetings for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Chelsea

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -210
  • Chelsea Moneyline: +500
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-110) 

Recently, Chelsea have not performed well as an underdog in terms of winning games outright. 

Across the last three seasons, Chelsea holds only one outright win in 19 tries as an underdog. In those 19 games, they’re 1-7-11 (W-D-L). 

The lone win? At Tottenham, which saw two players sent off in the first half. 

Although they captured a point at Stamford Bridge against Arsenal, their goals were quite lucky. 

They scored an early penalty off a handball in the box and scored their second goal off a shot worth 0.03 expected goals, per 

Eliminate the penalty and bettors will find Chelsea scored once off 0.56 expected at home against Arsenal. 

To be fair, Arsenal also overperformed their underlying metrics. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side scored two goals off 0.99 xG and 0.82 psxG, according to 

However, this is a Chelsea defense ripe for the taking at the moment. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Blues have surrendered 1.58 expected goals. Sample trips to Liverpool and Manchester City and it becomes 2.75 xGA per 90 minutes, per 

Their road form has also proved very bad recently against bottom-half sides. In their last two road games – Brentford and Sheffield United – Chelsea have allowed 1.8 psxG per 90. 

That should put them in deep trouble against an Arsenal attack which has created at least 1.5 xG in all but four home matches this season. 

Plus, Arsenal are unbeaten this season at home in games where they score at least two goals (W11-D2) with one draw undeserved by expected goals. 

All that said, I’ll be surprised if Arsenal keeps Chelsea off the scoresheet on short rest. 

Chelsea have found the net in 15 straight games, including trips as underdogs to Manchester City and Liverpool. 

Both teams have scored in three of the last four meetings between these sides. 

As a result, I’ll back the game to clear 2.5 goals along with Arsenal’s moneyline, the likeliest outcome based on Chelsea’s underdog form. 

Arsenal Form 

April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W

April 17 at Bayern Munich: 1-0, L (Champions League)

April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W

Chelsea Form

April 20 vs. Manchester City: 0-1, L (FA Cup) 

April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W

April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D

April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W

March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.