- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal home favorite against West Ham.
- Bournemouth has won 12 straight league Monday matches as a favorite.
- My Bournemouth vs. West Ham prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
To conclude the Matchday 16 Premier League slate, Bournemouth hosts West Ham United at the Vitality Stadium.Â
The Cherries captured another dramatic comeback win last weekend. Two goals in the final eight minutes at Ipswich Town provided a 2-1 win, the third in a row for Bournemouth.Â
West Ham captured a 2-1 win over Wolves on Matchday 15 to (temporarily) save Julen Lopetegui’s job. Despite that win, the Hammers remain 14th in the league table.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. West Ham prediction.Â
Bournemouth vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | +0.5 (+110) | 3.5 (+120) | +340 |
| Bournemouth | -0.5 (-155) | 3.5 (-165) | -145 |
| Draw | +310 |
Bournemouth vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected regression and West Ham’s weak road record, my prediction is a SGP: Bournemouth Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-110).Â
Bournemouth sit eighth in the league table, but they should place so much higher based on their underlying metrics.Â
Andoni Iraola’s side owns a +3 goal differential compared to a +12.5 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
For context, Bournemouth’s +12.5 xGDiff ranks 11th-best across Europe’s top-five leagues in the hardest domestic league of the group.Â
In their last home match against Tottenham, Bournemouth posted a +1 goal differential compared to a +2.6 xGDiff and a +1.4 post-shot xGDiff.Â
That renders this a good buy spot against a West Ham team off a wholly undeserved win.Â
The Hammers beat Wolves 2-1 at the London Stadium. However, expected goals finished 1.4-1.0 in Wolves’ favor, while post-shot xG finished 1.3-0.4 in Wolves’ direction.Â
This game also represents West Ham’s hardest road opponent to date as the Cherries own a +1.04 home xGDiff per 90 minutes.Â
History also suggests this is a good spot to bet Bournemouth.Â
Since 2012, home favorites between -215 and -106 in games 11-38 against a dog off a one-goal win as favorites are 60-21.Â
Just since the 2021 Premier League season, those favorites are 21-6, including 19-3 when priced between -215 and -126.Â
To reduce the price on the Bournemouth moneyline, add over 1.5 goals.Â
Each of the two meetings between these clubs cleared that number last season, and Bournemouth matches are averaging 3.23 combined xG this season.
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