Man City vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 23, 2024, 4:42 PM
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • City earned a 2-1 home win against Brighton in the previous meeting.
  • Why Thursday’s hosts are worth a shot on the moneyline.

Following a weekend FA Cup win to reach the final, Manchester City travel to the English South coast to face Brighton & Hove Albion. 

Entering Thursday’s fixture, City have earned three straight Premier League wins. Their last outright league defeat came on December 6 at Aston Villa. 

As for Brighton, they’re winless in their last four league games and have only three wins in their last 10. However, they’ve dropped all three points only twice at home. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Thursday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Brighton

  • Man City Moneyline: -225
  • Brighton Moneyline: +550
  • Draw Moneyline: +380
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Brighton

Brighton Moneyline (+550)

Brighton fit the profile of a team that could pull off an outright upset against the title holders. 

The first factor worth mentioning is the rest advantage for the Seagulls. Brighton last played on April 13 – a 1-1 draw against Burnley. 

Meanwhile, this will mark Manchester City’s fourth match since April 13 and their eighth since March 31. Over the latter span, Brighton have played only four games. 

History suggests it’s best to take shots with home underdogs that excel on the defensive end. 

Although their offense has proved lackluster this season, manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side has excelled in a low block. 

Entering Thursday’s match, they rank sixth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and fifth in post-shot expected goals allowed, per 

However, of the teams seventh or better in the latter metric, Brighton are the only team that has conceded more than three penalty kicks. 

When these sides met last, Brighton excelled at limiting City’s chances. Although the title holders scored twice, it came off 0.75 expected and 0.96 post-shot expected goals. 

Bettors should expect a similar defensive output on Thursday at home, especially with Erling Haaland questionable for Manchester City. 

History also suggests Brighton are a system play in terms of backing home underdogs. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home dogs at +251 or higher, allowing between 1.2 and 1.8 goals per game, are 67-177 SU for a 49.4% ROI, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0
  • The team’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3

When those teams have more than 10 days between games, they’re 16-33 SU and have earned at least a draw in 23 of 49 games. 

For those reasons, take advantage of the “must win” tax on Manchester City as they chase the title and take a flier on a team that’s 60% ATS as an underdog since 2021-22. 

Man City Form 

April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

April 17 vs. Real Madrid: 1-1, D (Champions League, Madrid win on PK’s)

April 13 vs. Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D

April 6 at Crystal Palace: 4-2, W

Brighton Form

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L

March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.