- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- City earned a 2-1 home win against Brighton in the previous meeting.
- Why Thursday’s hosts are worth a shot on the moneyline.
Following a weekend FA Cup win to reach the final, Manchester City travel to the English South coast to face Brighton & Hove Albion.
Entering Thursday’s fixture, City have earned three straight Premier League wins. Their last outright league defeat came on December 6 at Aston Villa.
As for Brighton, they’re winless in their last four league games and have only three wins in their last 10. However, they’ve dropped all three points only twice at home.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Thursday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Brighton
- Man City Moneyline: -225
- Brighton Moneyline: +550
- Draw Moneyline: +380
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Brighton
Brighton Moneyline (+550)
Brighton fit the profile of a team that could pull off an outright upset against the title holders.
The first factor worth mentioning is the rest advantage for the Seagulls. Brighton last played on April 13 – a 1-1 draw against Burnley.
Meanwhile, this will mark Manchester City’s fourth match since April 13 and their eighth since March 31. Over the latter span, Brighton have played only four games.
History suggests it’s best to take shots with home underdogs that excel on the defensive end.
Although their offense has proved lackluster this season, manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side has excelled in a low block.
Entering Thursday’s match, they rank sixth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and fifth in post-shot expected goals allowed, per fbref.com.
However, of the teams seventh or better in the latter metric, Brighton are the only team that has conceded more than three penalty kicks.
When these sides met last, Brighton excelled at limiting City’s chances. Although the title holders scored twice, it came off 0.75 expected and 0.96 post-shot expected goals.
Bettors should expect a similar defensive output on Thursday at home, especially with Erling Haaland questionable for Manchester City.
History also suggests Brighton are a system play in terms of backing home underdogs.
Since the 2012-13 season, home dogs at +251 or higher, allowing between 1.2 and 1.8 goals per game, are 67-177 SU for a 49.4% ROI, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0
- The team’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
When those teams have more than 10 days between games, they’re 16-33 SU and have earned at least a draw in 23 of 49 games.
For those reasons, take advantage of the “must win” tax on Manchester City as they chase the title and take a flier on a team that’s 60% ATS as an underdog since 2021-22.
Man City Form
April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
April 17 vs. Real Madrid: 1-1, D (Champions League, Madrid win on PK’s)
April 13 vs. Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D
April 6 at Crystal Palace: 4-2, W
Brighton Form
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L
March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
