- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Manager Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool has won two straight against Everton.
- Bettors should play this Same Game Parlay for Wednesday’s Merseyside Derby.
Ahead of the 212th Merseyside Derby on Wednesday at Goodison Park, I’m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Everton prediction.
Both teams enter the Derby in good form. Albeit in controversial fashion, Everton earned a 2-0 home win against Nottingham Forest on Sunday, while Liverpool dispatched Fulham 3-1.
When these sides met earlier this season at Anfield, Liverpool earned a 2-0 win thanks to an Everton red card in the first half.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Everton
- Liverpool Moneyline: -225
- Everton Moneyline: +525
- Draw Moneyline: +375
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Everton
Same Game Parlay: 1H Under 1.5 Goals & Liverpool Team Total Under 3.5 Goals (-135)
I’m so intrigued how this game plays out from a moneyline standpoint because I can make cases for both the Liverpool and Everton moneylines.
Given that fact, I’m forced to look at the totals for the latest edition of the Merseyside Derby.
This season, Everton have performed quite well defensively in the first 45 minutes as home underdogs.
Sample six matches in which the Toffees closed a home dog and bettors will find five stayed under 1.5 goals in the first half.
That trend played out in the first half at Anfield as well. Even with an Ashley Young red card on 37 minutes, Everton still managed to see out the first half 0-0.
In that first half, these rivals combined for only 0.62 expected goals and 0.04 post-shot expected goals, according to fotmob.com.
From there, we move on to the Liverpool team total element of this Same Game Parlay.
Although Everton just conceded six goals at Chelsea two matches ago, they’ve held firm at home irrespective of opponent quality.
No side has scored more than four goals at Goodison Park. Only one side – West Ham United, oddly – has scored three goals without needing a penalty kick.
Plus, this is a Liverpool team that sees a massive offensive dropoff away from home.
Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has created 2.76 expected goals per 90 minutes at Anfield compared to only 1.72 xG per 90 on the road, per fbref.com.
They’ve scored four goals in two road matches, but those successes came against easier defenses: Brentford (10th in npxGA per 90) and Bournemouth (9th in npxGA per 90).
Against an Everton team fourth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes, I expect Liverpool will struggle to clear 3.5 goals.
Everton 1H Moneyline (+400, 0.25 unit)
This is not a Liverpool side that plays its best soccer early away from home.
Liverpool have only won five first halves outright through 16 road fixtures in the league this season.
Granted, they’ve only lost three of those halves outright, but Everton have quietly played well at home in the first half.
In six games as a home underdog, the Toffees have only lost two first halves outright.
Within that sample, they’ve produced outright wins against both Brighton and Manchester City and played Arsenal to a 0-0 draw after the first 45 minutes.
Plus, Brighton fit the historical profile of a team that could pull off an outright upset for the game.
Since the 2012-13 season, home underdogs sitting between +251 and +1500, allowing between 1.2 and 2.0 goals per game are 77-206 SU for a 47.4% ROI, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0
- The team’s previous game margin was between +0 and +3
Over the last two seasons, 13 teams have pulled outright upsets that fit the profile. Of those 13, 11 have won the first half.
The only aspect keeping me off Everton’s moneyline for the game?
Since 2012-13, road favorites sitting between -150 and -350 off a two-plus goal win that won the previous meeting by at least two goals are 62-19 SU, including 8-1 this season.
However, given Liverpool have to travel on short rest to play their second straight road game, Everton are worth a flier in the first half.
Liverpool Form
April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W
April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L
April 11 vs. Atalanta: 0-3, L (Europa League)
April 7 at Manchester United: 2-2, D
Everton Form
April 21 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W
April 15 at Chelsea: 0-6, L
April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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