- Liverpool is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
- Liverpool is 7-1 SU in their last eight and beat Chelsea 4-1 in the last meeting.
- My Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction is the Liverpool moneyline.
Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture sees league leaders Liverpool host fourth-place Chelsea at Anfield.
New manager Arne Slot has started his Liverpool tenure strong by capturing nine wins from 10 in all competitions. Most recently, Liverpool dispatched Crystal Palace 1-0 in London.
Chelsea is unbeaten in five matches, with three wins and two draws. Before the international break, Chelsea dropped points in a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction.
Premier League Odds: Liverpool vs. Chelsea
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | +0.5 (+115) | 3.5 (-105) | +360 |
| Liverpool | -0.5 (-165) | 3.5 (-135) | -150 |
| Draw | +320 |
Premier League Betting: Liverpool vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s last result against Chelsea and the success of home favorites on extended rest, my Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (-150).
The Blues have two key injury absentees in defense that negatively impact their outlook. Left back Marc Cucurella and central defender Wesley Fofana are suspended for Sunday’s match.
Neither featured in the last meeting at Anfield. Chelsea were shredded 4-1 and surrendered 3.7 post-shot expected goals.
Plus, Chelsea enter Sunday’s fixture as a major negative regression candidate away from home.
Through three league matches away from Stamford Bridge, Enzo Maresca’s side has a +8 goal differential compared to a +0.1 expected goal differential.
That regression could come on Sunday at Anfield, where Liverpool own a +1.14 expected goal differential per 90 minutes with two wins from three this season.
Although this is the shortest Liverpool will close at home this young season, history suggests they’re in a good spot.
Since 2012, home favorites between -180 and +115 are 82-38 SU (64%), assuming they have nine, 14 or 15 days between games.
Since 2021, those teams improve to 20-6 SU (77%), including 8-2 when they won the last head-to-head meeting.
When Liverpool finds themselves in the former spot, they’re a perfect 6-0 SU.
Pair those trends with their strong defensive metrics to start the season, and I’ll back the Reds at -170 or better on the three-way moneyline.
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at Crystal Palace: 1-0, W
- Oct. 2 vs. Bologna: 2-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 at Wolves: 2-1, W
- Sept. 25 vs. West Ham: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-0, W
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 6 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
- Oct. 3 vs. Gent: 4-2, W (Europa Conference League)
- Sept. 28 vs. Brighton: 4-2, W
- Sept. 24 vs. Barrow: 5-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 at West Ham: 3-0, W
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