- Manchester United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has scored at least one goal in 10 straight EPL matches at Old Trafford.
- My Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal moneyline.
The marquee fixture of Premier League Matchday 27 pits Manchester United against Arsenal at Old Trafford.
United, in spite of playing down a man for a majority of the match against Ipswich Town, used three set piece goals to earn a 3-2 win. Still, United sits 14th in the league table.
Arsenal played a 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest following a 1-0 loss to West Ham. Prior to those two results, Arsenal captured a 14-match unbeaten run, including 10 wins.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction.
Manchester United vs. Arsenal: Premier League Odds
Manchester United vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s strong defensive record and previous success on set pieces against United, my Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-130).
Trusting Arsenal as road favorites with four key attackers out is slightly scary.
But Arsenal’s path to victory in this match likely comes down to their set piece creation. Earlier this season, that’s how Arsenal captured a 2-0 win over United.
Arsenal generated 2.16 xG in the reverse fixture against United. Of that total, 1.59 came via set piece situations, per fotmob.com.
Of course, the match saw Arsenal’s full trio of starting attackers feature.
But United’s defensive record – 14th in non-penalty xGA per 90, 18th in xGA against set pieces – should allow for chances from Arsenal’s attack.
Conversely, bettors should question how United creates against the league’s best defense.
Arsenal ranks first in both expected goals against and post-shot expected goals against, per fbref.com.
They’re simultaneously 8-1-1 (W-D-L) against teams with a bottom-seven xGDiff per 90 minutes. Entering Sunday’s game, United ranks 15th in that metric.
History also likes this spot to back Arsenal.
Since 2012, half-goal favorites between -135 and +127 on the moneyline are 58-21, assuming three factors:
- The team’s game number falls between 23 and 38
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +0
- The favorite’s margin in the last meeting is +1, +2 or -2
Even when those sides play away from home, they’re 20-8 SU.
As a result, I like Arsenal to earn all three points and end their short winless run.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.
With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!
If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.
