- Tottenham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Brighton.
- The underdog has won four of the last six EPL matches between Tottenham and Brighton.
- My Tottenham vs. Brighton prediction is the Brighton moneyline.
After a strong home win over Liverpool on Monday, Brighton travels to London to face Tottenham.
The Seagulls are clinging to the possibility of a spot in Europe. Brighton sits eighth, which could become a European spot if Chelsea finishes seventh and wins the Conference League.
Tottenham faces a Sunday league match after the Europa League Final on Wednesday. In the league, Ange Postecoglou’s side has lost five of its last six matches with one win since March.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Brighton prediction.
Tottenham vs Brighton: Premier League Odds
- Tottenham Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Brighton Moneyline: +105
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-295), “No” (+195)
Brighton vs Tottenham: Prediction
Based on Brighton’s rest advantage over Tottenham and their success in the reverse fixture, my Tottenham vs Brighton prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (+105).
Despite falling behind 2-0 as home dogs to Tottenham, Brighton stormed back to claim a 3-2 win.
However, the underlying metrics indicated Brighton thoroughly dominated the match. Post-shot expected goals finished 2.26-1.28 for Brighton, who won 4-1 on big scoring chances.
Now, they get a Tottenham side off a midweek final that could uplift a disastrous season. For Tottenham, that match remains the only path to Champions League qualification.
Presumably, that would lead to a rotated Starting XI for the hosts, especially in defense. It’s likely that bettors see a central defensive pairing of Kevin Danso and Ben Davies.
With Danso in the Starting XI, Tottenham owns a 0-2-5 (W-D-L) in its last seven league matches.
Irrespective of personnel, Tottenham has struggled to earn points this season when the defense struggles. In 17 league matches when Spurs allow two or more goals, they’re 0-2-15 (W-D-L).
For reference, Brighton is -185 to clear 1.5 goals on Sunday. They’re also coming off a 2.2 xG/3.9 post-shot xG performance against Liverpool.
Plus, Brighton recorded an unbeaten record through 13 matches against the seven worst defenses by post-shot xGA (W7-D6).
In the last six against such teams, Brighton are 5-1-0 (W-D-L) with a +1.9 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Also worth noting: Brighton scored at least two goals in all six of those matches, including 10 of 13 overall.
History also suggests it’s a good spot for Brighton. Since 2012, favorites between -130 and +112 are 63-33, assuming two factors:
- The favorite won the last head-to-head meeting by one goal
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -4 and -1
As a result, I’ll take Brighton to earn all three points and consider using Brighton Over 1.5 as a parlay piece.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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