- Tottenham is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Chelsea.
- Chelsea has lost each of its last seven EPL Week 15 away matches.
- My Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction focuses on the pregame total.
Seeking a third straight head-to-head win, Chelsea travel to North London on Sunday for a meeting with Tottenham.
Chelsea eased their way past Southampton 5-1 in the midweek. With that win, Chelsea sit second in the league table and trail Liverpool by seven points.
Tottenham, meanwhile, lost 1-0 as road favorites against Bournemouth on Thursday. That drops Tottenham to 10th in the league table, with Spurs dropping points in consecutive matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction.
Tottenham vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | -0.5 (+105) | 3.5 (-120) | +115 |
| Tottenham | +0.5 (-150) | 3.5 (-115) | +200 |
| Draw | +280 |
Tottenham vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s poor defensive metrics away from home and Tottenham’s defensive absentees, my Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (-120).
The last meeting between these sides finished 2-0 in Chelsea’s favor. However, the underlying metrics suggest more goals were expected.
Chelsea scored twice off 2.17 expected, but their defense ran lucky. At home, Chelsea surrendered zero goals off 1.65 expected, per fotmob.com.
I have no worry about Chelsea’s ability to score goals on Sunday.
They’ll get a Tottenham team with potentially both of its starting central defenders out via injury. Even if Christian Romero returns, I remain confident in Chelsea’s ability to score.
Spurs has closed a home favorite in each of their previous three home matches.
Still, they’ve surrendered no fewer than 1.6 expected goals to any of Ipswich Town, Aston Villa and Fulham.
Now they get a Chelsea attack that leads the Premier League in expected goals and non-penalty expected goals while sitting second in post-shot xG.
But there’s an equal concern with Chelsea’s ability to defend away from home.
Enzo Maresca’s side conceded 1.84 post-shot xG at Southampton in the midweek.
Even if there’s rotation from Chelsea defensively, this remains a team that allowed 1.18 non-penalty xG at Manchester United and 1.96 xG at Wolves.
At 11.1 expected goals against away from home, Chelsea ranks 10th in terms of road expected goals conceded.
This game also matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, games featuring a home dog and a total of 3.5 goals are 14-8 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.7 and 4.1
- The road team’s last game cleared the over/under by between 1.5 and 4.5 goals
