- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Friday, May 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 24-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 21-23 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -115 | -150 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+12.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Blake Snell | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games (+14.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+16.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+15.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+2.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 24-20 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 3.03% ROI).
- 24-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 12.05% ROI
- 29-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.8 Units / 30.96% ROI
- 13-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.55 Units / -39.74% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 21-23 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -12.98% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.15 Units / -20.48% ROI
- 14-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -35.72% ROI
- 28-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.85 Units / 27.05% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has limited playing time.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 57% (358/628) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 44% (103/234) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 54% (314/578) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 56% (439/780) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Red Sox are just 2-16 (.111) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are 14-9 (.609) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Red Sox are 9-4 (.692) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .542.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Padres are just 4-78 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .458 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Red Sox are batting .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .361 (1,018 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Red Sox are hitting .389 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Padres hitters have drawn 136 walks in 1,133 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have 281 strikeouts in 1,133 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 27 of 389 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.3 MPH (1,151 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 37% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 398 times this season — 4th fewest in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.6
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Groin, Day-to-Day
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
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