- The Cubs are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene, 10.38 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon, 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Mesa.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Reds are 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 7-2 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 10.5 -115 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +130 | U 10.5 -105 | -160 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 4.26% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 17.78% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -4.6% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 7-2 against the Run Line (+5.2 Units / 40.47% ROI).
- 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 54.59% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -31.96% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 24.89% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene struck out 35% (96/274) of left-handed batters he faced last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (32 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon walked 8 of 269 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon allowed a slugging percentage of .286 (101 Total Bases / 353 ABs) with two-strikes last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents batted .412 (33-for-80) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — eighth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon walked 10 of 408 right-handed batters (3%) last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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