Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 09, 2023, 11:25 AM
  • The Cubs are -160 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene, 10.38 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon, 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Mesa.

The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Reds are 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 7-2 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -155O 10.5 -115+135
Cubs -1.5 +130U 10.5 -105-160

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • No trends found

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 4.26% ROI).

  • 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 17.78% ROI
  • 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -5.62% ROI
  • 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -4.6% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 7-2 against the Run Line (+5.2 Units / 40.47% ROI).

  • 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 54.59% ROI
  • 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -31.96% ROI
  • 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 24.89% ROI

Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene struck out 35% (96/274) of left-handed batters he faced last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (32 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — second Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jameson Taillon walked 8 of 269 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon allowed a slugging percentage of .286 (101 Total Bases / 353 ABs) with two-strikes last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 11th Percentile.

Opponents batted .412 (33-for-80) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — eighth Percentile.

Jameson Taillon walked 10 of 408 right-handed batters (3%) last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.

The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.

The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.