UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

An entertaining women’s flyweight battle will headline the UFC Fight Night on Saturday, as No. 8-ranked divisional contender Amanda Ribas faces the former UFC women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in the card’s main event.

Another Fight Week, another badass event 💥@AmandaUFCRibas vs @RoseNamajunas

[ B2YB @SheertexLabs | #UFCVegas89 ] pic.twitter.com/eg4jLxnIN2

— UFC (@ufc) March 18, 2024

Ribas aims to extend her win streak to two after previously winning her fight last year, while Namajunas wants to record her first victory in the 125-pound division after she had a rude welcome on her first outing in the weight class in 2023. Although she still hasn’t won a fight in the strawweight division, Namajunas is the -185 betting favorite in UFC odds.

Meanwhile, Ribas takes on the +150 underdog tag even though she is the ranked fighter and has a 7-3 record under the Las Vegas-based promotion as a natural strawweight contender.

Amanda Ribas Recent Fight Results

Ribas joined the UFC in 2019 and quickly recorded four straight victories to crack a spot in the rankings, defeating Emily Whitmire, Mackenzie Dern, Randa Markos, and Paige VanZant. Her first defeat in the promotion came in her fifth bout, when Marina Rodriguez stopped her in January 2021 at UFC 257 via a second-round TKO finish.

Since that setback, the Brazilian star had alternate results in her next five fights, winning against Virna Jandiroba, losing to Katlyn Cerminara, beating Viviane Araujo, and losing to Maycee Barber. Her most recent fight was a win over Luana Pinheiro, who she defeated via third-round TKO.

Rose Namajunas Recent Fight Results

Namajunas was a product of Ultimate Fighter 20 in December 2014. Even though she was defeated by Carla Esparza in the finale, she was still signed by the UFC with a fight contract. Since arriving at the UFC, she won eight of her next 10 fights.

During this stretch, she also became a two-time UFC women’s strawweight champion, first in November 2017 when she beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and in April 2021 after knocking out Zhang Weili. Namajunas’ reign ended in May 2022 after Esparza defeated her again by unanimous decision.

In September 2023, “Thug Rose” made her 125-pound debut and faced Manon Fiorot, but she lost by unanimous decision. This time, Namajunas wants to get the win and secure a spot in the rankings before eventually making a run at a title shot.

Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas: Tale of the Tape

Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Ribas and Namajunas sees a slight advantage for Namajunas, as she has an inch of height and 2.5 inches of leg reach edge over Ribas. However, Ribas will enjoy an inch of upper hand on the reach. Both have an identical number of wins with 12, but Namajunas has a higher finish rate of 67% compared to Ribas’ 58%.

In terms of fighting style, they have a different approach because Ribas has a Judo background, and Namajunas has an MMA style. Surprisingly, Ribas has the higher output on the significant strikes landed per minute at 4.92 (42%) versus Namajunas’ 3.68 (40%). Their defense is almost the same with 3.33 significant absorbed per minute for Ribas (63% rate) and 3.53 for Namajunas (62% rate).

But in the grappling numbers, the Brazilian has the lead over the American in all four major categories. She racked up a 1.99 takedown average per 15 minutes (1.49 for Namajunas), 51% takedown accuracy (48% for Namajunas), 87% takedown defense (60% for Namajunas), and 0.80 submission average per minute (0.55 for Namajunas).

With all the numbers laid out, it is clear that Ribas’s fight strategy should solely focus on taking Namajunas down on the mat and working her way into a submission maneuver or ground-and-pound beating because of her superior grappling skills. Additionally, she holds two submission wins in the UFC, so it will not be surprising if she decides to go this route.

Meanwhile, Namajunas will have the advantage in the striking department because of her speed that she was able to acclimate with the higher division. Her most potent weapon against Ribas is her kicks because of the longer leg reach, which could see her pepper the ranked opposition with multiple leg kicks throughout the fight.

“Thug Rose” must be careful of possible counters from Ribas when she is throwing her kicks because she might catch them and use them against her to secure a takedown. Although she has a respectable ground game, she doesn’t want to be in that situation.

Official Prediction: Unanimous decision victory for Rose Namajunas.