Pirates vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (32-27) are -250 favorites vs the Pirates (24-32)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 24-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 30-29 ATS.

Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -105O 9 -115+200
Braves -1.5 -115U 9 -105-250

Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+15.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+15.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+7.25 Units / 81% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+5.60 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.97 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 47 games (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-30 against the Run Line (-8.15 Units / -11.58% ROI).

  • 24-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 3.19% ROI
  • 21-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -19.04% ROI
  • 30-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.75 Units / 10.83% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 30-29 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -1.31% ROI).

  • 32-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -4.2% ROI
  • 31-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 5.59% ROI
  • 25-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -13.78% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (12/98) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (53/162) against Zach Thompson on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (5 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .374 — 94th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has allowed an OBP of .360 (100 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .304 — eighth Percentile.

: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Charlie Morton has allowed an OBP of .366 (246 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — third Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (809/1,901) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (18/70) against Charlie Morton this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Charlie Morton has allowed a slugging percentage of .510 (50 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — sixth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are 10-3 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Pirates are just 23-28 (.451) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Braves are 27-8 (.771) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Braves are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.

The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates hitters have 52 strikeouts in 157 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Braves hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Braves hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .815 (645 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Pirates pitchers have walked 184 of 1,892 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 45 of 493 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 69% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 243 of 2,408 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Braves pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Collin McHugh (Braves): Undisclosed, D10
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.