- The Braves (32-27) are -250 favorites vs the Pirates (24-32)
- Pirates starting pitcher: , ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 24-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 30-29 ATS.
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -105 | O 9 -115 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 9 -105 | -250 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 77% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+15.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+15.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+7.25 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+5.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.97 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 47 games (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-30 against the Run Line (-8.15 Units / -11.58% ROI).
- 24-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 21-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -19.04% ROI
- 30-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.75 Units / 10.83% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 30-29 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -1.31% ROI).
- 32-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -4.2% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 5.59% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -13.78% ROI
: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (12/98) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (53/162) against Zach Thompson on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Zach Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (5 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .374 — 94th Percentile.
Zach Thompson has allowed an OBP of .360 (100 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .304 — eighth Percentile.
: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has allowed an OBP of .366 (246 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (809/1,901) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (18/70) against Charlie Morton this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has allowed a slugging percentage of .510 (50 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — sixth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are 10-3 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Pirates are just 23-28 (.451) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Braves are 27-8 (.771) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Braves are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters have 52 strikeouts in 157 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Braves hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .815 (645 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 184 of 1,892 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 45 of 493 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 69% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 243 of 2,408 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Braves pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Undisclosed, D10
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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