Nuggets vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 25, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -1.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | SPEC | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.

The Lakers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Nuggets vs Lakers Over/Under is 216.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 39-43 against the spread, while the Lakers are 41-45 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+1.5 -120O 216.5 -105-105
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 +100U 216.5 -115-115

Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Thursday‘s game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Lakers.

Lakers vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 52.3% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 100 games (+22.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 away games (+15.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+15.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 games (+14.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 98 games (+21.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+21.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+15.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 39-43 (-8.3 Units / -8.98% ROI).

  • 59-25 against the Moneyline (+13.95 Units / 4.35% ROI)
  • 34-48 against the Over for game total points (-18.8 Units / -20.34% ROI)
  • 48-34 against the Under for game total points (+10.65 Units / 11.53% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 41-45 (-8.5 Units / -8.99% ROI).

  • 49-37 against the Moneyline (+15.65 Units / 8.42% ROI)
  • 47-38 against the Over for game total points (+5.2 Units / 5.49% ROI)
  • 38-47 against the Under for game total points (-13.65 Units / -14.44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 98 games (-35.95 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 84 games (-26.35 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 98 games (-23.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 26 of their last 69 games (-19.45 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 70 games (-19.15 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 92 games (-26.75 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 90 games (-25.45 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 95 games (-24.60 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 46 away games (-22.35 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 17 away games (-17.20 Units / -61% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

The Nuggets are 27-5 (.844) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Lakers have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — T-6th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Lakers have allowed 117.4 points per game this season — 8th-worst in the NBA.

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Lakers are 28-9 (.757) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Lakers were 4-13 (.235) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Lakers are 8-3 (.727) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .532

The Lakers are 9-4 (.692) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

Injury Report: Lakers vs. NuggetsThursday‘s Game, Apr. 25

  • Cam Reddish (Los Angeles Lakers): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Los Angeles Lakers): Foot, Game Time Decision
  • Christian Wood (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Hood-Schifino (Los Angeles Lakers): Back, Out For Season
  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,497 assists/ 1,094 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (7,184/14,367) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 4.7 second chance points per game (384 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Lakers have averaged 30.1 points in the paint per game (2,470 points/82 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Lakers had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (304 assists/ 149 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers have averaged 16.8 fast break points per game (2,759 points/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,822 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (6,163 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Lakers have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (3,047 rebounds/82 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers averaged 6.4 steals per game (526 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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