Bengals vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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Cleveland Browns' Denzel Ward (21) plays during an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023, in Landover, Md. Browns top cornerback Denzel Ward cleared concussion protocol and will start in Sunday's season opener against Cincinnati, giving Cleveland's secondary its best player as it tries to stop Joe Burrow and his trio of receivers.
(AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr., File)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:30 PM
  • The Bengals are -6 point favorites vs the Browns
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-4-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (1-5-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Browns Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bengals-6 -11042 -110-275
Browns +6 -11042 -110+220

Bengals vs. Browns Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 66.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Browns Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 68.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

  • Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Zack Moss has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Dustin Hopkins has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals art 3-3 (-0.15 Units / -2.33% ROI).

  • Bengals are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -52.77% ROI
  • Bengals are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.75 Units / 26.32% ROI
  • Bengals are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).

  • Browns are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -71.51% ROI
  • Browns are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Browns are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Bengals were 4-7 (.364) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Bengals were 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Bengals were 5-1 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.

The Bengals are 2-4 (.333) this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns are 1-5 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Browns are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .449.

The Browns were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Bengals have scored on 58% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in the red zone last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Bengals have averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns have averaged 0.00 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 6% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 27% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 57% of plays on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 53 of 636 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) since the 2023 season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Bengals defense has averaged a sack every 25.5 pass attempts (204 Pass Attempts/8 Sacks) this season — 3rd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.9.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 53% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 18% of rush attempts with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

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About the Author

BetMGM Betting

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.