- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Toronto Blue Jays (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 21-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 14-21 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Blue Jays vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+11.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+14.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 19-16 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 3.69% ROI).
- 21-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -7.18% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -2.32% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 14-21 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -27.29% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -15.94% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -9.2% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 2.08% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .353 (18-for-51) against Alek Manoah’s non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Alek Manoah has a strike rate of just 51% (94/183) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Alek Manoah has a strike rate of just 60% (96/161) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 69% — third Percentile.
Alek Manoah has walked 13 of 95 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 12th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 3 of 108 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (19/119) against Aaron Nola this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .300 (9-for-30) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 19th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has struck out just 16% (10/64) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Blue Jays are 8-8 (.500) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Blue Jays are 21-18 (.538) when underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Blue Jays are 42-59 (.416) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are just 1-14 (.067) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Phillies are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .265 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .259 with two outs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Blue Jays are batting .186 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Blue Jays hitters have just 57 strikeouts in 323 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Phillies are batting .280 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Phillies hitters have drawn 22 walks in 424 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .180 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 18 of 310 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 110 of 1,765 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 13 double plays in 223 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 6.33 (159.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Phillies have allowed 6.21 runs per game (118/19) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.58.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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