- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Twins
- Mariners vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Mariners are 20-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 18-17 ATS.
Mariners vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 3-2, 3.26 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 3-1, 4.79 ERA
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -115 | -115 |
| Twins | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -105 | -105 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 away games (+19.50 Units / 162% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+13.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+12.40 Units / 124% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 18-18 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -3.79% ROI).
- 20-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 2.22% ROI
- 8-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -53.2% ROI
- 26-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.1 Units / 44.02% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 18-17 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 20-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 1.36% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 1.46% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -9.66% ROI
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| George Kirby (SEA) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has struck out 52% (11/21) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby’s has 15 strikeouts and no walks against right-handed batters this season — best K:BB ratio among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 17 of 556 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 1 of 63 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 13% (6 SO in 45 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (22 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .298 — third Percentile.
Opponents have no hits on inside fastballs in 18 AB’s against Chris Paddack this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 18 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .412 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 91-14 (.867) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 87-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Mariners are 137-24 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 51-8 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are 27-123 (.180) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Twins are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .204 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Mariners hitters have 86 strikeouts in 331 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have 285 strikeouts in 986 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .830 (449 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .677.
The Twins are batting .452 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Twins hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Twins are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .227 (321 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 512 of 7,288 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 208 of 3,225 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have walked 535 of 7,332 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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