- The Blue Jays are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Toronto Blue Jays (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 18-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 17-14 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +110 | O 9.5 -115 | -145 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | U 9.5 -105 | +120 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 16-14 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 1.31% ROI).
- 18-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 4.23% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -17.23% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 7.52% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 17-14 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 5.86% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 8.21% ROI
- 21-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.1 Units / 30.06% ROI
- 10-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -39.37% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alek Manoah has a strike rate of just 57% (170/300) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Alek Manoah has walked 12 of 77 left-handed batters (16%) this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .159 (51-for-321) against Alek Manoah in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has walked 8 of 68 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (54/319) against Nick Pivetta when he’s behind in the count since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 6.32 (84.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.45 — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (1,070/2,488) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 157 opportunities (4%) since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — fourth Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Blue Jays are 7-7 (.500) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Blue Jays are 41-58 (.414) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Blue Jays are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Red Sox are just 2-11 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are 10-11 (.476) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Red Sox are 11-7 (.611) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays hitters have just 50 strikeouts in 290 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 300 strikeouts in 1,543 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .376 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .463 (108 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .507 (67 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 14 of 267 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 106 of 1,722 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (765.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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