- Air Force is a -3.5 point favorite vs. San Diego State
- Air Force vs. San Diego State Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Air Force Falcons (4-7) visit Snapdragon Stadium to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (3-8) on Nov. 30 in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST.
Air Force is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Air Force vs. San Diego State Over/Under is 43.5 total points.
Bet now on San Diego State vs Air Force & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Air Force vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Air Force | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -165 |
| San Diego State | +3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +140 |
Air Force vs San Diego State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and San Diego State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Air Force vs San Diego State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 57.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on San Diego State vs Air Force and all games with BetMGM
Air Force Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
San Diego State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for San Diego State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best San Diego State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Marquez Cooper has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Napier has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Louis Brown IV has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nate Bennett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Air Force is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.65 Units / -30.17% ROI).
- Air Force is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -25.89% ROI
- Air Force is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- Air Force is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
San Diego State is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).
- San Diego State is 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -59.62% ROI
- San Diego State is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
- San Diego State is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State
Air Force is winless (0-9) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .336
Air Force is 4-10 (.286) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .442
Air Force is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .423
Air Force is 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .458
San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force
San Diego State is 3-15 (.167) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .442
San Diego State is 3-15 (.167) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400
San Diego State is 3-14 (.176) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .416
San Diego State is winless (0-10) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .354
Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. San Diego State
San Diego State’s RBs has averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Air Force’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
San Diego State has averaged just 10.7 yards after the catch this season — T-17th-worst among FBS skill players. Air Force’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 4,293 passing yards in 23 games (just 186.7 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 185.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 17.0% of 241 attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.9% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.2% of 136 attempts this season — 4th-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force has gained 920 yards on 59 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends
Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 5.4 receptions per game (59/11) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.7
Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.1 yards per reception (2,029 yards/112 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Air Force WRs have averaged just 3.7 receptions per game (88/24) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 9.6 times per game (230/24) since the 2023 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.5
Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 4.7 receptions per game (112/24) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8
San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State WRs have averaged 25.8 yards per reception (103 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
San Diego State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 5.7 receptions (17 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
San Diego State’s RBs has averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Air Force’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
San Diego State Skill Players had 6 receptions in the Red Zone last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Air Force has allowed 118.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 172.4
Air Force’s opponents has attempted just 25.2 passes per game since the 2023 season– 2nd-lowest in FBS; Average: 30.7
Air Force has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 64 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Air Force has allowed 118.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 167.4
Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 14 of 84 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 9%
San Diego State Aztecs Defensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State has forced 4 fumbles on 457 carries (114.2 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 44.1
San Diego State has allowed 8.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (702 yards / 85 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 5.2
San Diego State has allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (21 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
San Diego State allowed 11.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (432 yards / 39 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3
San Diego State has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (37 completions/53 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
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