Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:14 PM

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Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables watches from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati, Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

(AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

Alabama is a -14 point favorite vs. Oklahoma
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) visit Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Norman, OK. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Alabama vs. Oklahoma Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Alabama	-14 -110	47.5 -110	-650
Oklahoma	+14 -110	47.5 -110	+450

Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 84.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Alabama and Oklahoma, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma will cover the spread with 78.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Alabama have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.10 Units / 20% ROI)

Oklahoma Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.25 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Alabama players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Alabama Player Prop Bets Today

Justice Haynes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jalen Milroe has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jalen Milroe has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Justice Haynes has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jalen Milroe has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oklahoma players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jackson Arnold has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Jovantae Barnes has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jovantae Barnes has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brenen Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

Alabama is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -4.11% ROI
Alabama is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Alabama is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.96% ROI).

Oklahoma is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -0.14% ROI
Oklahoma is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Oklahoma is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Alabama is undefeated (15-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .682

Alabama is 20-4 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 17th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Alabama is 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Alabama is 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

Oklahoma is undefeated (11-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .662

Oklahoma is undefeated (11-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .598

Oklahoma is 15-5 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .633

Oklahoma is 11-7 (.611) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .445

Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.4% of 295 attempts this season — worst among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.4% of attempts this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has gained 1,149 yards on 100 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) this season — worst among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma has gained 1,817 yards on 181 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — worst among SEC skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.1% of 270 attempts this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.9% of attempts this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has 13 receiving touchdowns this season — T-5th-most among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 14 receiving touchdowns this season — 5th-most among SEC defenses.

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 22.8 yards per reception (319 yards/14 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 22.8 yards per reception (319 yards/14 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.9

Alabama WRs have averaged 43.4 yards per reception (217 yards/5 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Alabama WRs have averaged 30.9 yards per reception (711 yards/23 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 16.2

Alabama WRs have averaged 30.9 yards per reception (711 yards/23 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma Skill Players have averaged just 10.0 yards per reception (1,817 yards/181 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.8

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

Alabama has allowed just 10.0 yards per completion (1,925 yards/192 completions) this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.6

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 131 of 833 rushing attempts (16% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Alabama allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (13 completions/15 attempts) in the 1st half last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%

Alabama has allowed just 10.5 yards per completion (4,600 yards/437 completions) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.6

Alabama’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 18% of PATs this season– 2nd-highest in the SEC; Average: 9%

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has no interceptions and 8 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 4.9

Oklahoma has no interceptions (32 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 22.5

Oklahoma’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest in the SEC; Average: 7%

Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 22 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Oklahoma has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 29 of 377 carries (8%) this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 13%