Arizona St vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

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Kansas State running back DJ Giddens runs the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against TCU Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 13, 2024, 4:34 PM
  • Kansas State is a -9 point favorite vs. Arizona St
  • Arizona State vs. Kansas State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

The Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) visit Bill Snyder Family Stadium to take on the Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) on Nov. 16 in Manhattan, KS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Kansas State is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -9 (-110).

The Arizona State vs. Kansas State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Arizona State vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arizona State+9 -11050.5 -110+280
Kansas State -9 -11050.5 -110-350

Arizona State vs Kansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Kansas State will win this game with 72.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arizona St and Kansas State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arizona State vs Kansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas State will cover the spread with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Arizona State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Arizona State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Arizona State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Arizona State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.35 Units / 6% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arizona State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arizona State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jordyn Tyson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cam Skattebo has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Sam Leavitt has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Cam Skattebo has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Sam Leavitt has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Keagan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • DJ Giddens has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Avery Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Avery Johnson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Jayce Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arizona St is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI).

  • Arizona State is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 45.19% ROI
  • Arizona State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Arizona State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.55 Units / -36.22% ROI).

  • Kansas State is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -7.52% ROI
  • Kansas State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Kansas State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Arizona State: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Arizona State is 5-8 (.385) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .596

Arizona State is 5-9 (.357) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .472

Arizona State is 5-11 (.312) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Arizona State is 5-9 (.357) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .503

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona State

Kansas State is 8-4 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .537

Kansas State is 15-5 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 25th-best in FBS; Average: .582

Kansas State is 13-5 (.722) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .580

Kansas State is 15-6 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .608

Matchup Notes for Arizona State vs. Kansas State

Kansas State’s TEs has 34 receptions in 9 games (3.8 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 2.3 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has gained 320 yards on 34 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has gained 320 yards on 34 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.

Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 232 attempts this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Kansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.7% of attempts this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arizona State’s WRs has 76 receptions in 9 games (just 8.4 per game) this season — worst among Big 12 WRs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 19.4 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona State has 139 receptions in 9 games (just 15.4 per game) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 19.4 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 232 attempts this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Kansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.7% of attempts this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arizona State TEs have just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 1.8

Arizona State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.5 receptions (27 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Arizona State RBs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Arizona State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.5 receptions (27 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State’s TEs has 34 receptions in 9 games (3.8 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 2.3 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas State TEs have caught 17 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Big 12 Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 17 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 8 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Kansas State’s TEs has gained 320 yards on 34 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona State Sun Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.9

Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Arizona State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 40 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14%.

Arizona State did not allow any touchdowns on 24 completions last week– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 12.8

Arizona State allowed no passing TDs (34 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.8

Kansas State Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (264 yards / 97 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Kansas State has allowed first downs on 10% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 18%

Kansas State opponents averaged 8.0 Passing Attempts per TD (40 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Kansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 14 of 69 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 14%.

Kansas State allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (12 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.