Arizona vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:16 PM

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TCU safety Bud Clark works out prior to an NCAA college football game between TCU and Texas, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. Texas won 29-26. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

TCU is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Arizona
Arizona vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Arizona Wildcats (4-6) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) on Nov. 23 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Arizona vs. TCU Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Arizona vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Arizona	+11.5 -110	59.5 -110	+350
TCU	-11.5 -110	59.5 -110	-450

Arizona vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 79.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arizona and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arizona vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 56.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Arizona Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arizona has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.15 Units / 61% ROI)
Arizona has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Arizona have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Arizona has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Arizona has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 14% ROI)

TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.25 Units / 21% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arizona players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arizona Player Prop Bets Today

Tetairoa McMillan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Noah Fifita has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Tetairoa McMillan has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Montana Lemonious-Craig has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Noah Fifita has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Bech has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Josh Hoover has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.20 Units / 120% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Arizona Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arizona is 2-8 against the spread this college football season (-6.9 Units / -61.88% ROI).

Arizona is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -4.52% ROI
Arizona is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Arizona is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.75 Units / -43.18% ROI).

TCU is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -27.62% ROI
TCU is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
TCU is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Arizona: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Arizona is 12-3 (.750) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Arizona is 6-3 (.600) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Arizona is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

Arizona is 9-4 (.692) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .526

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona

TCU is 2-9 (.182) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .352

TCU is 4-7 (.364) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501

TCU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .650

TCU is 3-9 (.250) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Matchup Notes for Arizona vs. TCU

TCU’s WRs has 13 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most among FBS WRs. Arizona’s defense has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has 15 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-5th-most among Power 5 skill players. Arizona’s defense has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has 13 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most among Power 5 WRs. Arizona’s defense has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona’s RBs has averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 5.7 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Arizona’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 359 attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona’s TEs has gained 386 yards on 33 receptions (11.7 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Arizona Offensive Stats & Trends

Arizona Skill Players have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (581 yards/29 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Arizona WRs have averaged 22.9 yards per reception (458 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.2

Arizona’s RBs has averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 5.7 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Arizona Skill Players have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (581 yards/29 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Arizona WRs have averaged 19.7 yards per reception (827 yards/42 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 14.6

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU Skill Players have averaged 14.3 yards per reception (731 yards/51 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8

TCU Skill Players have picked up first downs on 64 receptions on 1st down this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU Skill Players have averaged 26.6 receptions per game (266/10) this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 19.1

TCU Skill Players have caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

TCU WRs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Arizona Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Arizona has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 66 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 14%.

Arizona has allowed a Completion Pct of 61% (27 completions/44 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 55%

Arizona has allowed a Completion Pct of 61% (27 completions/44 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 25th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Arizona has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 64 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 10%.

Arizona has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 64 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 45 of 401 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 55 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 45 of 401 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 15 of 137 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 20th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 45 of 401 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– T-12th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.