- Missouri is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas
- Arkansas vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers (8-3) on Nov. 30 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Arkansas vs. Missouri Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Arkansas vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas | +3.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | +150 |
| Missouri | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -185 |
Arkansas vs Missouri Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas vs Missouri Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Arkansas have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 1% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Missouri have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyrone Broden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luke Hasz has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Braylen Russell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Marcus Carroll has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).
- Arkansas is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 6.7% ROI
- Arkansas is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
- Arkansas is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.5 Units / 20.49% ROI).
- Missouri is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 0.93% ROI
- Missouri is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
- Missouri is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri
Arkansas is 4-14 (.222) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487
Arkansas is 1-10 (.091) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Arkansas is 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– 12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471
Arkansas is 8-4 (.667) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-40th-best in FBS; Average: .598
Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas
Missouri is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .662
Missouri is 8-4 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .475
Missouri is 12-5 (.706) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Missouri is 11-1 (.917) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .709
Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Missouri
Missouri’s TEs has 31 receptions in 11 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 31 receptions in 11 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s WRs has averaged 23.1 targets per game this season — 5th-highest among SEC WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas’s TEs has 30 receptions in 11 games (just 2.7 per game) this season — 3rd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.
Arkansas’s QBs has thrown for 3,000 passing yards in 11 games (272.7 YPG) this season — T-24th-best among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 181.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Arkansas’s WRs has gained 2,304 yards on 155 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed 14.3 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas WRs have averaged a touchdown every 22.1 receptions (155 Rec/7 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 10.4
Arkansas RBs have averaged 7.7 Yards per Carry (429 yards/56 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Arkansas QBs have fumbled 7 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Arkansas WRs have averaged 22.7 yards per reception (408 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Arkansas TEs have averaged 21.2 yards per reception (297 yards/14 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3
Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri’s TEs has 31 receptions in 11 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 31 receptions in 11 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s WRs has averaged 23.1 targets per game this season — 5th-highest among SEC WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s RBs has averaged just 4.3 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 9.5 RAC to RBs this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 31 receptions in 11 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas has no interceptions and 24 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 9.0
Arkansas has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 5.6
Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 59 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 11%.
Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 24 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12%.
Arkansas has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most in the SEC
Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 3 of their 22 carries (14%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 3%
Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Missouri has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 28 carries (4%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 15%
Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 12%.
Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 22 of 101 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 16%.
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