- Michigan is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Arkansas State vs. Michigan Total(Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: BTN
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-0) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Michigan Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +1100 |
| Michigan | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -2500 |
Arkansas State vs Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both teams, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 85.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 25.48% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.05 Units / -2.38% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.15 Units / -6.52% ROI
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.15 Units / -100% ROI).
- Michigan is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Michigan is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Michigan is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Arkansas State is winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393
Arkansas State is 6-3 (.545) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .425
Arkansas State is winless (0-5) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .330
Arkansas State is undefeated (6-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .469
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Michigan is 14-1 (.933) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .438
Michigan is undefeated (15-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .523
Michigan is 25-1 (.962) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .446
Michigan is undefeated (15-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .566
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Michigan
Michigan’s WRs has averaged just 9.2 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.3 RAC to WRs this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s WRs has averaged just 9.2 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s WRs has averaged just 9.2 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC to TEs this season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State have 286.0 receiving yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed 240.5 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has rushed for 168 yards on 49 carries (just 3.4 YPC) this season — T-20th-worst among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC to RBs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Corey Rucker (ARKS) has gained 239 yards on 13 receptions (18.4 YPR) this season — 8th-best of Qualified Skill Players. Michigan’s defense has allowed 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State have 286.0 receiving yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed 240.5 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Arkansas State Skill Players have averaged 16.3 yards per reception (832 yards/51 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.8 Yards per Carry (384 yards/102 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 12th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Arkansas State Skill Players have averaged 17.3 yards per reception (589 yards/34 catches) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2
Arkansas State WRs have been targeted 19 times on 3rd down this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan TEs have 6 receptions on 3rd down this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan TEs have 7 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan TEs have 7 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Michigan TEs have averaged 5.5 receptions per game (11/2) in the 2nd half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 1.7
Michigan TEs have been targeted 8 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 28% (5 completions/18 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (2 completions/10 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 28% (5 completions/18 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (11 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (11 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan has allowed 2.0 touchdowns per interception (4 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– 3rd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 0.7
Michigan opponents has averaged 45.3 Passing Attempts per TD (906 Pass Attempts/20 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.6
Michigan opponents has averaged 40.4 Passing Attempts per TD (485 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 20.7
Michigan opponents has averaged 45.3 Passing Attempts per TD (906 Pass Attempts/20 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.4
Michigan opponents has averaged 6.2 Passing Attempts per TD (74 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
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