- The Texas State is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- The Arkansas State vs. Texas State Total (Over/Under): 63.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) visit UFCU Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) on Oct. 12 in San Marcos, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Texas State Over/Under is 63.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +14.5 -110 | 63.5 -105 | +425 |
| Texas State | -14.5 -110 | 63.5 -115 | -600 |
Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 84.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Texas State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Texas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+6.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas State Player Prop Bets Today
- Courtney Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaylen Raynor has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Corey Rucker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.15% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -26.74% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.85 Units / 18.89% ROI
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Texas State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -60.68% ROI
- Texas State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texas State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Arkansas State is 9-2 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 24th-best in FBS; Average: .649
Arkansas State is 8-3 (.727) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551
Arkansas State is undefeated (8-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .683
Arkansas State is 6-1 (.857) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Texas State is 4-3 (.571) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .440
Texas State is 9-6 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .397
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .557
Texas State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State has 410 receptions in 18 games (22.8 per game) since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 6.2 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has gained 341 yards on 52 receptions (just 6.6 YPR) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 6.1 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has rushed for 344 yards on 103 carries (just 3.3 YPC) this season — T-3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense have allowed just 3.0 YPC this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (344 yards/103 carries) this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 6.2 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State RBs were targeted 4 times in the 4th quarter last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State RBs had 7 receptions in the 2nd half last week– most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State RBs have no touchdowns on 52 receptions since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.5
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State has 410 receptions in 18 games (22.8 per game) since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,851 passing yards in 18 games (269.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 247.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State WRs have averaged 20.4 receptions per game (102/5) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (54 completions/78 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (7 completions/21 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Arkansas State has allowed opponents to catch 54 of 77 passes (70% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State has averaged 4.2 sacks per game this season– best in FBS; Average: 2.0
Texas State has averaged 3.3 sacks per game since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Texas State has averaged 4.2 sacks per game this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9
Texas State has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (21/165) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 45 of 191 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
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