Auburn vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

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Alabama defensive lineman Jaheim Oatis (91) runs a play against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
(AP Photo/Michael Woods)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 2:47 PM
  • Alabama is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Auburn
  • Auburn vs. Alabama Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

The Auburn Tigers (5-6) visit Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) on Nov. 30 in Tuscaloosa, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Auburn vs. Alabama Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Auburn vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Auburn+11.5 -11052.5 -115+350
Alabama -11.5 -11052.5 -105-450

Auburn vs Alabama Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Auburn and Alabama, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Auburn vs Alabama Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 86.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Auburn has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Auburn have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Auburn has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Auburn has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.85 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 22% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Auburn players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Auburn Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jarquez Hunter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Rivaldo Fairweather has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cam Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Alabama players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Alabama Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Justice Haynes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jalen Milroe has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jalen Milroe has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Jalen Milroe has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • CJ Dippre has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Auburn Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Auburn is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

  • Auburn is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -12.24% ROI
  • Auburn is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Auburn is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.12% ROI).

  • Alabama is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.6 Units / -5.71% ROI
  • Alabama is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Alabama is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

Auburn is winless (0-5) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Auburn is 1-9 (.091) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .504

Auburn is 1-9 (.091) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Auburn is 1-10 (.083) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn

Alabama is 8-1 (.889) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .650

Alabama is 18-4 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: .622

Alabama is 17-2 (.895) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Alabama is 14-3 (.824) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .658

Matchup Notes for Auburn vs. Alabama

Alabama has gained 2,625 yards on 192 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Auburn’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has gained 1,939 yards on 124 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Auburn’s defense has allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has gained 1,939 yards on 124 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Auburn’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Auburn’s offense has thrown for 2,866 passing yards in 11 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 181.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s QBs has thrown for 2,866 passing yards in 11 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 181.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 2,289 yards on 142 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends

Auburn’s offense has thrown for 2,866 passing yards in 11 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 181.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s QBs has thrown for 2,866 passing yards in 11 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 181.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 2,289 yards on 142 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 2,289 yards on 142 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 2,289 yards on 142 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 22.6 yards per reception (1,060 yards/47 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Alabama WRs have averaged 36.8 yards per reception (294 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (788 yards/26 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 16.2

Alabama WRs have averaged 36.8 yards per reception (294 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 23.6 yards per reception (424 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Auburn Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Auburn has forced 3 fumbles on 405 carries (135.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 44.1

Auburn has forced 3 fumbles on 405 carries (135.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 36.4

Auburn has forced 3 fumbles on 405 carries (135.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.6

Auburn has allowed 12.7 yards per completion (2,300 yards/181 completions) this season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 11.7

Auburn has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (28/330) this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

Alabama has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 337 attempts (1%) this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 2%

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 59 of 413 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) this season– 3rd-worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Alabama has allowed just 9.9 yards per completion (1,993 yards/201 completions) this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.7

Alabama’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs this season– 3rd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 55 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst in the SEC; Average: 16%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.