Baylor vs West Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:29 PM

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West Virginia head coach Neal Brown questions a call against his team during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Iowa State 31-14. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Baylor is a -2.5 point favorite vs. West Virginia
Baylor vs. West Virginia Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Baylor Bears (5-4) visit Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) on Nov. 16 in Morgantown, WV. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Baylor vs. West Virginia Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Baylor vs. West Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Baylor	-2.5 -115	58.5 -105	-140
West Virginia	+2.5 -105	58.5 -115	+115

Baylor vs West Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and West Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs West Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts West Virginia will cover the spread with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Baylor have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)

West Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

West Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 31% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
West Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.50 Units / 45% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bryson Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for West Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best West Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Garrett Greene has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
CJ Donaldson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jahiem White has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Hudson Clement has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Greene has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Baylor is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 1.12% ROI
Baylor is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Baylor is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

West Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

West Virginia is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI).

West Virginia is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 16.67% ROI
West Virginia is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
West Virginia is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. West Virginia

Baylor is 6-13 (.316) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .596

Baylor is 4-13 (.235) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Baylor is 2-14 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .488

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .528

West Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

West Virginia is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– 11th-best in FBS; Average: .617

West Virginia is 7-1 (.875) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .715

West Virginia is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .528

West Virginia is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .683

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. West Virginia

West Virginia’s TEs has 37 receptions in 9 games (4.1 per game) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 1.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

West Virginia’s WRs have just 142.4 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 177.2 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia’s WRs has 8 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s TEs has gained 313 yards on 27 receptions (11.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.2% of 272 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. West Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.4% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,546 yards on 105 receptions (14.7 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 WRs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has gained 2,109 yards on 159 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s TEs has gained 313 yards on 27 receptions (11.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia Skill Players have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (22 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

West Virginia WRs averaged 32.7 yards per reception (98 yards/3 catches) last week– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7

West Virginia WRs have caught just 1 of 8 passes (12% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 66%

West Virginia Skill Players have caught just 1 of 10 passes (10% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 65%

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (20 completions/27 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 51%

West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia has allowed 4.5 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.7

West Virginia has allowed 4.5 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.5

West Virginia has sacked opposing QBs just once on 73 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

West Virginia has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 261 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

West Virginia has sacked opposing QBs just once on 73 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0