- Florida St is a -2.5 point favorite vs. California
- California vs. Florida State Total(Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The California Golden Bears (3-0) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (0-3) on Sep. 21 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Florida St is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The California vs. Florida State Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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California vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| California | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +110 |
| Florida State | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -130 |
California vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
California vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Florida St vs California and all games with BetMGM
California Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- California has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- California has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- California have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- California has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.65 Units / 79% ROI)
- California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Florida State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best California Player Prop Bets Today
- Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaydn Ott has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Roydell Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Lawrance Toafili has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Malik Benson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
California Against the Spread (ATS) Record
California is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).
- California is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 23.33% ROI
- California is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- California is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Florida State is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida State is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida State is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
California: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
California is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
California is winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .324
California is 2-9 (.182) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .497
California is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .391
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. California
Florida State is undefeated (8-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .410
Florida State is undefeated (8-0) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .383
Florida State is undefeated (9-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .552
Florida State is 9-1 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .418
Matchup Notes for California vs. Florida State
Florida State’s TEs has 74 receptions in 16 games (4.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s TEs has gained 66 yards on 4 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 7.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s TEs has 74 receptions in 16 games (4.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
California has averaged just 10.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC WRs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
California has 322 receptions in 16 games (20.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among ACC defenses.
California Offensive Stats & Trends
California RBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
California RBs have fumbled 4 times in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
California has averaged just 10.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC WRs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
California has 322 receptions in 16 games (20.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among ACC defenses.
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State Skill Players have no touchdowns on 35 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.2
Florida State WRs have no touchdowns on 23 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.9
Florida State’s TEs has 74 receptions in 16 games (4.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s TEs has gained 66 yards on 4 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 7.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State RBs have averaged just 0.8 Yards per Carry (7 yards/9 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends
California has averaged 3.00 interceptions per game (9/3) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.85
California has 9 interceptions this season– most among Power Conference Teams
California has 9 interceptions this season– most in FBS
California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 110 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 75 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8
Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (237 completions/470 attempts) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (6 completions/18 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (8 completions/26 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Florida State has allowed opponents to catch just 237 of 468 passes (51% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (122 completions/241 attempts) in the 1st half since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%
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