- SMU is a -13.5 point favorite vs. California
- California vs. SMU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The California Golden Bears (6-5) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (10-1) on Nov. 30 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
SMU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).
The California vs. SMU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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California vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| California | +13.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +400 |
| SMU | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -550 |
California vs SMU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 82.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
California vs SMU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts California will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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California Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- California has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- California has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- California have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- SMU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best California Player Prop Bets Today
- Nyziah Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kevin Jennings has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
California Against the Spread (ATS) Record
California is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 4.56% ROI).
- California is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -2.38% ROI
- California is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -29.75% ROI
- California is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 22.31% ROI
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.58% ROI).
- SMU is 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 6.63% ROI
- SMU is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
- SMU is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
California: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
California is 5-12 (.294) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .442
California is 5-9 (.357) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
California is 3-8 (.273) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– 15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
California is 4-6 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .589
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. California
SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525
SMU is 10-1 (.909) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .579
SMU is undefeated (21-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .751
SMU is 17-1 (.944) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .667
Matchup Notes for California vs. SMU
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 6,771 passing yards in 25 games (270.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense has allowed 257.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
California’s TEs has 66 receptions in 11 games (6.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among P5 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
California Offensive Stats & Trends
California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
California’s TEs has 66 receptions in 11 games (6.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among P5 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
California have been sacked on 20% of pass attempts (16/79) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 6,771 passing yards in 25 games (270.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense has allowed 257.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s TEs has gained 1,242 yards on 82 receptions (15.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU RBs had 40 receiving yards on 3rd down last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends
California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 112 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 112 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
California has not recorded a sack (45 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9
California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 152 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 152 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU sacked opposing QBs on 33% of pass attempts (9/27) last week– best in FBS; Average: 7%
SMU sacked opposing QBs on 33% of pass attempts (9/27) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
SMU sacked opponents 9 times last week– most in FBS
SMU sacked opponents 9 times last week– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (173 yards / 57 touches) last week– best in FBS; Average: 6.8
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