California vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – LA Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 11:32 AM

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UNLV Rebels wide receiver Ricky White (11) runs a route during an NCAA football game against the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022 in Berkeley, Calif. (AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)

(AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)

California is a -1.5 point favorite vs. UNLV
California vs. UNLV Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The California Golden Bears (6-6) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels (10-3) on Dec. 18 in Inglewood, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST.

California is a betting favorite in the LA Bowl with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The California vs. UNLV Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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California vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
California	-1.5 -110	50.5 -110	-125
UNLV	+1.5 -110	50.5 -110	+105

California vs UNLV Prediction:

The winning team model predicts California will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and UNLV, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

California vs UNLV Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 58.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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California Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

California has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 28% ROI)
California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.40 Units / 16% ROI)
California has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 away games (+0.75 Units / 10% ROI)

UNLV Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UNLV has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
UNLV has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
UNLV has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 9% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best California Player Prop Bets Today

Nyziah Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UNLV Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ricky White III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Jacob De Jesus has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

California Against the Spread (ATS) Record

California is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.18% ROI).

California is 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -4.2% ROI
California is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -35.61% ROI
California is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 28.03% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI).

UNLV is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 13.39% ROI
UNLV is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
UNLV is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

California: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

California is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .382

California is 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .455

California is 6-12 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .452

California is 4-7 (.364) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. California

UNLV is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

UNLV is 11-3 (.786) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .466

UNLV is 17-3 (.850) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .555

UNLV is 10-2 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .627

Matchup Notes for California vs. UNLV

UNLV has 423 receptions in 27 games (just 15.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. California’s defense has allowed 22.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.

California’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 14.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.

California’s TEs has 68 receptions in 12 games (5.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

California’s QBs has thrown for 3,196 passing yards in 12 games (266.3 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS teams. UNLV’s defense has allowed 241.2 passing yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

California Offensive Stats & Trends

California have been sacked on 21% of pass attempts (17/82) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

California’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Power 5 WRs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

UNLV have been sacked on 16% of pass attempts (7/44) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 114 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

California has not recorded a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.3

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 114 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

California allowed 21 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 157 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3%

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 138 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on 87 of 413 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UNLV defense allowed 67 completions for 20 or more yards in the 2023 season– most in FBS

UNLV allowed 67 receptions for 20+ yards in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams