Central Florida vs West Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:16 PM

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West Virginia head coach Neal Brown questions a call against his team during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Iowa State 31-14. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Central Florida is a -3 point favorite vs. West Virginia
UCF vs. West Virginia Total (Over/Under): 63.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

The UCF Knights (4-6) visit Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Morgantown, WV. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The UCF vs. West Virginia Over/Under is 63.5 total points.

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UCF vs. West Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UCF	-3 -110	63.5 -105	-150
West Virginia	+3 -110	63.5 -115	+125

UCF vs West Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and West Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCF vs West Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts West Virginia will cover the spread with 67.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCF Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 40% ROI)
UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)

West Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

West Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.90 Units / 37% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 18% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UCF players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCF Player Prop Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Randy Pittman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Trent Whittemore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kobe Hudson has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for West Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best West Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Garrett Greene has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
CJ Donaldson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jahiem White has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Hudson Clement has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaden Bray has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.35 Units / -3.21% ROI).

UCF is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units / -25.64% ROI
UCF is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.65 Units / 33.03% ROI
UCF is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.92% ROI

West Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

West Virginia is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.53% ROI).

West Virginia is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 4.26% ROI
West Virginia is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
West Virginia is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. West Virginia

UCF is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537

UCF is 1-5 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .521

UCF is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UCF is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

West Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

West Virginia is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .695

West Virginia is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .505

West Virginia is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

West Virginia is 12-4 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .625

Matchup Notes for UCF vs. West Virginia

West Virginia’s WRs has gained 1,450 yards on 95 receptions (15.3 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

West Virginia has gained 2,023 yards on 155 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

West Virginia’s WRs has gained 1,450 yards on 95 receptions (15.3 YPR) this season — T-15th-best among FBS WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 248 attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. West Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

UCF has gained 2,018 yards on 150 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — T-2nd-best among Big 12 skill players. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF’s TEs has gained 352 yards on 29 receptions (12.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF Skill Players have caught just 5 of 19 passes (26% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 57%

UCF Skill Players have caught just 5 of 19 passes (26% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

West Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia Skill Players have caught just 1 of 10 passes (10% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 67%

West Virginia Skill Players were targeted 13 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

West Virginia WRs were targeted 6 times in the Red Zone last week– most among Big 12 Teams

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF has not recorded a sack (35 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

UCF has not recorded a sack (35 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.1

UCF has allowed 26 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

UCF has forced 10 fumbles on 842 carries (84.2 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8

UCF allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 2 of 55 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%

West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia has allowed 5.2 touchdowns per interception (21 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.7

West Virginia has sacked opposing QBs just once on 74 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

West Virginia has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 15 of 297 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

West Virginia has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 15 of 297 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

West Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (29 completions/74 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%