Charlotte vs Rice Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM

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(AP Photo/Michael Wyke)

The Rice is a -7 point favorite vs. Charlotte
The Charlotte vs. Rice Total(Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Charlotte 49ers (1-3) visit Rice Stadium to take on the Rice Owls (1-3) on Sep. 28 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Rice is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Charlotte vs. Rice Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Charlotte vs. Rice Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Charlotte	+7 -115	46.5 -105	+200
Rice	-7 -105	46.5 -115	-250

Charlotte vs Rice Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Rice will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Charlotte and Rice, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Charlotte vs Rice Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Rice will cover the spread with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Charlotte Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Charlotte has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Charlotte have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Charlotte has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Charlotte has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Charlotte has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Rice Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Rice has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Rice has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 43% ROI)
Rice has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Rice have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.70 Units / 8% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Rice players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rice Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dean Connors has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
AJ Padgett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Boden Groen has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
AJ Padgett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dean Connors has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Charlotte Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Charlotte is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.87% ROI).

Rice Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rice is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Charlotte: Keys to the Game vs. Rice

Charlotte is 1-12 (.077) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .452

Charlotte is 2-11 (.154) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .395

Charlotte is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Charlotte is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .319

Rice: Keys to the Game vs. Charlotte

Rice is 5-1 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .685

Rice is 3-10 (.231) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .452

Rice is 3-9 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .444

Rice is 3-10 (.231) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .375

Matchup Notes for Charlotte vs. Rice

Rice’s QBs has thrown for 750 passing yards in 4 games (just 187.5 YPG) this season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Charlotte’s defense has allowed 267.0 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Rice’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 4.8% of 147 attempts this season — 5th-worst among FBS offenses. Charlotte’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.5% of attempts this season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.

Rice’s RBs has rushed for 469 yards on 73 carries (6.4 YPC) this season — T-22nd-best among FBS RBs. Charlotte’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s TEs has 28 receptions in 4 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among FBS TEs. Rice’s defense has allowed just 11.8 receptions per game this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Colin Weber (CHA) has 14 receptions in 4 games (3.5 per game) this season — T-5th-best of Qualified Tight Ends. Rice’s defense has allowed just 11.8 receptions per game this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Deshawn Purdie (CHA) has averaged just 6.0 pass attempts per sack this season — 2nd-worst of Qualified Quarterbacks. Rice’s defense has allowed just 5.7 pass attempts per sack this season — best among FBS defenses.

Charlotte Offensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte TEs have been targeted 12 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Charlotte TEs have 10 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Charlotte Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 20.4 receptions (265 Rec/13 TDs) since the 2023 season– 7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Charlotte TEs have been targeted 5.5 times per game (22/4) in the 2nd half this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6

Rice Offensive Stats & Trends

Rice RBs have been targeted 10 times in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Rice RBs have been targeted 7.7 times per game (131/17) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.1

Rice RBs have been targeted 10.2 times per game (41/4) this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3

Rice TEs have been targeted 8 times in close and late situations this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Charlotte 49ers Defensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– T-most in FBS

Charlotte has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Charlotte has allowed 10 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

Charlotte has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Charlotte allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most in FBS

Rice Owls Defensive Stats & Trends

Rice has sacked opposing QBs on 17% of pass attempts (14/80) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Rice has sacked opposing QBs on 17% of pass attempts (14/80) this season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Rice has sacked opponents 14 times this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Rice has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (39/456) since the 2023 season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Rice did not sack opposing QBs on any of 13 pass attempts last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 6%