- The Texas Tech is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Cincinnati
- The Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Total(Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Texas Tech is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cincinnati | +2.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +115 |
| Texas Tech | -2.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -135 |
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas Tech will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Cincinnati and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas Tech will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Cincinnati Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Texas Tech Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Cincinnati players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cincinnati Player Prop Bets Today
- Corey Kiner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas Tech players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas Tech Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Behren Morton has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tahj Brooks has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Behren Morton has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Coy Eakin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 16.85% ROI
- Cincinnati is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Cincinnati is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas Tech is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -26.14% ROI).
- Texas Tech is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.71% ROI
- Texas Tech is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
- Texas Tech is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Texas Tech
Cincinnati is 7-9 (.438) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .632
Cincinnati is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .538
Texas Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati
Texas Tech is 7-2 (.778) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Texas Tech is 6-1 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Texas Tech is 6-1 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .547
Texas Tech is 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .620
Matchup Notes for Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,256 passing yards in 4 games (314.0 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati’s TEs has gained 227 yards on 16 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 1,080 passing yards in 4 games (270.0 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 280.2 passing yards per game this season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s TEs has gained 227 yards on 16 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati have been sacked on 25% of pass attempts (3/12) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Offenses; Average: 6%
Cincinnati RBs have averaged 10.3 Yards per Carry (329 yards/32 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Cincinnati’s TEs has gained 227 yards on 16 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 1,080 passing yards in 4 games (270.0 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 280.2 passing yards per game this season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s TEs has gained 227 yards on 16 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,256 passing yards in 4 games (314.0 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Texas Tech’s WRs have 248.5 receiving yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 receiving yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.6
Cincinnati has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.7
Cincinnati has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 13 rushes in the Red Zone this season– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 5.5
Cincinnati has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 36
Cincinnati has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas Tech has averaged a sack every 46.0 pass attempts (138 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.9
Texas Tech allowed no passing TDs (38 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 21.3
Texas Tech has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season– most in the Big 12
Texas Tech has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Texas Tech has allowed 11 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams
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