Clemson vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – College Football Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 11:41 AM

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Texas is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Clemson
Clemson vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: TNT

The Clemson Tigers (10-3) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (11-2) on Dec. 21 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-105).

The Clemson vs. Texas Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Clemson vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Clemson	+11.5 -115	51.5 -115	+325
Texas	-11.5 -105	51.5 -105	-400

Clemson vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 77.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Clemson and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Clemson vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 65.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Clemson Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Clemson has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Clemson have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Clemson has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Clemson has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Clemson has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.15 Units / 20% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Clemson players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Clemson Player Prop Bets Today

Phil Mafah has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jake Briningstool has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Antonio Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tyler Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Cade Klubnik has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Clemson Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Clemson is 6-7 against the spread this college football season (-1.7 Units / -11.93% ROI).

Clemson is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 3.2% ROI
Clemson is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -18.88% ROI
Clemson is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 10.49% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI).

Texas is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 0.53% ROI
Texas is 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -33.57% ROI
Texas is 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 25.17% ROI

Clemson: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Clemson is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .652

Clemson is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .635

Clemson is 12-7 (.632) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .523

Clemson is 11-3 (.786) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Clemson

Texas is 16-1 (.941) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .523

Texas is 16-2 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .532

Texas is 11-1 (.917) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .620

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .637

Matchup Notes for Clemson vs. Texas

Texas has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas has averaged just 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-5th-best among SEC skill players. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 11.0 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Clemson has averaged just 10.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — worst among ACC skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — best among SEC defenses.

Clemson’s WRs has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-worst among Power 5 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Clemson’s WRs has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Clemson Offensive Stats & Trends

Clemson has 606 receptions in 26 games (23.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed 19.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Clemson’s WRs has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — best among SEC defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs have 22 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Texas’s offense has thrown for 3,652 passing yards in 13 games (280.9 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 214.4 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Clemson Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (12 completions/29 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Clemson has allowed 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (451 yards / 58 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.2

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (4 completions/13 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Clemson has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (203 completions/381 attempts) in the 1st half since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Clemson has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 26 of their 429 carries (6%) this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 4%

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents has averaged 91.2 Passing Attempts per TD (365 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in FBS; Average: 20.7

Texas opponents has averaged 91.2 Passing Attempts per TD (365 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.6

Texas has allowed 142.9 Passing Yards per game (1,858/13) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 208.7

Texas opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9