College Football National Championship Odds: Ohio State Favored In Playoff Semifinals

This 2024 college football season will be a historic one. The FBS level of NCAA football is in the midst of its first-ever expanded playoff, with 12 teams facing qualifying for the draw instead of four.

There’s never been a more exciting time in the college football odds market. The BetMGM online sportsbook has carried several futures options available for bettors.

Odds to Win College Football National Championship

College Football National Championship Prediction

Based on the current futures market, the Ohio State Buckeyes have an implied 54.6% chance to win the college football national championship.

College Football Playoff Odds: Ohio State Dominates CFP Final Four

Ever since the college football futures market opened last January, there have been four teams the market has favored over everyone else: Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, and Oregon. 

Even after midseason losses, those four teams’ futures odds mostly hovered above the other 130 FBS teams in the table.

The College Football Playoff’s second-round results are the first thing to have truly shaken the status quo. With all four top seeds losing – including No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Georgia – the futures market has been upended.

Ohio State (-120) is now the odds-on favorite to win the title. The price stems not just from last week’s demolition of Oregon, but also the consistent liability that it’s presented to the sportsbook. 

The Buckeyes were a co-favorite alongside Georgia for a significant portion of the year. As of Jan. 7, it represented about 16% of championship tickets and 27% of all handle.

Ohio State will need to eliminate Texas in the semifinals to reach the championship game, so the path to the title is far from easy. Yet, Texas has looked pretty mortal in the months since Quinn Ewers’ abdominal injury, and the Buckeyes’ stock is at a high point after avenging its earlier loss to Oregon.

At BetMGM, the line opened at Ohio State -4.5 and has been bet to -6 in mostly one-way action. Jeremiah Smith is a popular target in the props market, with both his anytime touchdown prop and the over on his receiving yards prop highlighted by the book as two of the most popular bets of the week. 

In the other semifinal game, Notre Dame is drawing big action as well. And while the Irish are far from favorites in the futures market, their overall ticket share has exploded over the last few weeks. Notre Dame accounted for 2.7% of all championship bets on Dec. 4; today, it’s approaching 10%.

As usual, the sportsbook will likely be rooting for outcomes that disrupt the public love for favorites.

“Bettors are backing Ohio State (-6) and Notre Dame (-2.5) in their respective College Football Playoff semifinals,” said BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle. “The sportsbook will be cheering for the underdogs to cover.”

But if the favorites come through, don’t feel too bad for the sportsbook. It already got a great outcome when its former No. 1 liability – Alabama – failed to make the playoff field. 

College Football National Championship History (CFP Era)