College Football National Championship Odds: Ohio State Resumes Favorite Status

This 2024 college football season will be a historic one. The FBS level of NCAA football will play its first-ever expanded playoff, with 12 teams facing qualifying for the draw instead of four.

There’s never been a more exciting time in the college football odds market. The BetMGM online sportsbook has several futures options available for bettors.

Odds to Win College Football National Championship

College Football National Championship Prediction

Based on the current futures market, the Ohio State Buckeyes have an implied 23.8% chance to win the college football national championship.

Oregon (+450, 18.2%) is the next most likely to win the national championship, followed by Georgia (+500, 16.7%).

National Championship Odds: Big Ten Favorites Remain Ahead of SEC Depth

In this first year of the post-Nick Saban era, the SEC has seen more top-to-bottom depth but no clear No. 1 team.

That move away from a more top-heavy conference has had a clear effect on the college football national championship odds. 

Four different SEC teams are 11-to-1 or shorter in the outright national championship market, which is a compliment to the depth that the market has shown. Yet the top two favorites (Ohio State and Oregon) are both from the Big Ten. 

Georgia was a favorite throughout much of the offseason and remains one of the most popular tickets at BetMGM with more than 10% of tickets and about one-sixth of all market handle. The Bulldogs have also played one of the most challenging schedules in college football this year, earning wins over Clemson, Texas, and Tennessee, which should keep them in good position for the CFP. 

Yet Georgia has also looked less like the unbeatable juggernaut it was throughout much of the last three years, struggling in games against Florida and Kentucky, among others. It lost games at both Alabama and Ole Miss.

Texas was viewed as a potential SEC successor if Georgia faltered. But since quarterback Quinn Ewers returned from an abdominal injury, he’s looked much more average in games against Georgia, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. It’s fair to wonder if the Longhorns are the same caliber of championship contender if Ewers is stuck in second gear.

The SEC’s loss is the Big Ten’s gain, as both Oregon and Ohio State are currently seen as top contenders for this year’s championship The Ducks should coast into the Big Ten title game (and CFP) from here.

Ohio State controls its own destiny after winning at Penn State but still faces a hugely important game against Indiana in Week 13 before getting archrival Michigan the following week. A sweep of those games would earn the Buckeyes a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. They would likely make the CFP regardless of the outcome of that game. 

Given the number of potential roadblocks for Ohio State over the next month, it’s surprising to see them atop the table right now. While the roster surely has more pure talent than 99% of other teams, the calendar is not Ohio State’s friend right now. 

That may open up counter-betting opportunities for college football futures bettors – assuming there’s a team they like somewhere else.

College Football Playoff Format Creating Value For Overlooked Teams

The new 12-team CFP format opens up some real opportunities for futures bettors who are paying attention.

The four highest-ranked conference champions will be ushered into the second round of the CFP via an automatic bid and first-round bye. Yet if you look at the teams currently atop many of the major conference standings, you’ll see some pretty well-positioned teams nowhere near the top of the table.

For example, SMU is in sole possession of first place in the ACC and has looked great since an early-season quarterback change to Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs are +5000 in the outright market.

Colorado has made huge leaps in Year 2 of the Deion experiment and is playing like the most consistent team in the Big 12. The Buffaloes, too, are +5000 in the championship market. 

Texas A&M has an inside track to the SEC Championship Game with its home game against the rival Longhorns in Week 14. But you’d never know it with the Aggies currently priced at 100-to-1 in the outright market. 

You don’t need to believe these teams have a great chance to win the final game of the season to place a bet on their current odds. The CLV in the futures market is big enough right now to set up clear hedge positions with fat numbers.

And for a little more on current teams’ CFP positioning, make sure you check out my College Football Playoff picture blog post, which is updated weekly. 

Longshot National Championship Odds

Recent College Football Champions

The CFP is moving to a 12-team model, and that’s good for getting more teams and fans involved with the product. 

However, I don’t expect much to change in terms of who actually wins the championship every year. College football odds will continue to be dominated by a small group of elite rosters and coaches, at least as far as the championship game is concerned.

As the College Football Playoff schedule gets closer, remember the history of this sport. Unlike basketball, major upsets of dominant teams just aren’t that common. 

For more on the history of championships, you can also check out my full, historical list of college football national champions by year.

College Football National Championship History (CFP Era)