Colorado vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM

min read

Central Florida head coach Gus Malzahn works from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Houston, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

The Central Florida is a -14 point favorite vs. Colorado
The Colorado vs. UCF Total(Over/Under): 64.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Colorado Buffaloes (3-1) visit FBC Mortgage Stadium to take on the UCF Knights (3-0) on Sep. 28 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Colorado vs. UCF Over/Under is 64.5 total points.

Bet now on Central Florida vs Colorado & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Colorado vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colorado	+14 -110	64.5 -110	+400
UCF	-14 -110	64.5 -110	-550

Colorado vs UCF Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 85.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Colorado and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Colorado vs UCF Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 66.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Central Florida vs Colorado and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Colorado Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Colorado has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Colorado has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Colorado have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Colorado has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

UCF Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 29% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Colorado players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colorado Player Prop Bets Today

Jimmy Horn Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Shedeur Sanders has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Shedeur Sanders has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Travis Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Charlie Offerdahl has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCF players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCF Player Prop Best Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
Kobe Hudson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Johnny Richardson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Xavier Townsend has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Colorado Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Colorado: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Colorado is 4-8 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .538

Colorado is 4-7 (.364) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .547

Colorado is 4-7 (.364) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622

Colorado is 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .551

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado

UCF is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

UCF is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .427

UCF is 1-3 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

UCF is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .632

Matchup Notes for Colorado vs. UCF

UCF’s offense has 1,127 rushing yards this season — 2nd-most among FBS offenses. Colorado’s defense has allowed 603 rushing yards this season — 5th-most among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s RBs has 12 rushing touchdowns this season — T-4th-most among FBS RBs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs this season — T-2nd-most among Big 12 defenses.

RJ Harvey (UCF) has 8 rushing touchdowns this season — most of Qualified Big 12 Running Backs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs this season — T-2nd-most among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 5 receptions in 3 games (just 1.7 per game) this season — worst among Big 12 TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed 22.0 receptions per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s WRs has averaged 23.2 targets per game this season — 4th-highest among Big 12 WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed 16.3 receptions per game to WRs this season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has gained 21 yards on 5 receptions (just 4.2 YPR) this season — worst among Big 12 TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 4.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — best among FBS defenses.

Colorado Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado TEs have averaged just 4.2 yards per reception (21 yards/5 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.5

Colorado TEs have averaged just 4.2 yards per reception (21 yards/5 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.3

Colorado TEs have averaged just 2.0 yards per reception (4 yards/2 catches) with 7-10 yards to go this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.6

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF WRs have averaged 24.5 yards per reception (270 yards/11 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4

UCF RBs have averaged 271.7 rushing yards per game (815/3) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 132.6

UCF Skill Players have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (490 yards/26 catches) with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.1

UCF Skill Players have caught just 16 of 46 passes (35% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 57%

UCF Skill Players have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (490 yards/26 catches) with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7

Colorado Buffaloes Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 44 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 44 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 10%.

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 11 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 11 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 9%.

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 44 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF has sacked opposing QBs just once on 104 pass attempts this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.7

UCF has sacked opposing QBs just once on 104 pass attempts this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

UCF has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 76 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.7

UCF has not allowed an opponent to rush for 20+ yards on any of their 76 carries this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3%

UCF has sacked opposing QBs just once on 104 pass attempts this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.9