- Duke is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Middle Tenn State
- Duke vs. Middle Tennessee Total(Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
The Duke Blue Devils (3-0) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) on Sep. 21 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Duke vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Duke vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Duke | -14.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -650 |
| Middle Tennessee | +14.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +450 |
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 84.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 77.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Middle Tenn State vs Duke and all games with BetMGM
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jaquez Moore has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Duke is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 22.63% ROI
- Duke is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI
- Duke is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -100% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee
Duke is 5-2 (.625) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .495
Duke is 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .407
Duke is 8-4 (.571) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .486
Duke is 9-3 (.643) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 36th-best in FBS; Average: .524
Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .391
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-10) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .358
Middle Tennessee is 2-8 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .426
Matchup Notes for Duke vs. Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has gained 633 yards on 39 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s QBs has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 7 receptions in 3 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC TEs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 29.0 receptions per game this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Duke’s offense has thrown for 3,166 passing yards in 16 games (just 197.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-worst among FBS offenses. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 276.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 7 receptions in 3 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC TEs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 29.0 receptions per game this season — worst among FBS defenses.
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2
Duke’s TEs has 7 receptions in 3 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC TEs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 29.0 receptions per game this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Duke’s offense has thrown for 3,166 passing yards in 16 games (just 197.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-worst among FBS offenses. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 276.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke WRs have been targeted 23 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Duke’s TEs has 7 receptions in 3 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC TEs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 29.0 receptions per game this season — worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has gained 633 yards on 39 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s QBs has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s QBs has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has gained 633 yards on 39 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 7.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — best among FBS defenses.
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke opponents has averaged 42.2 Passing Attempts per TD (507 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 20.7
Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 33 of 110 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Duke has allowed 12 touchdowns on 311 completions (25.9 Completions Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 12.5
Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 33 of 110 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%.
Duke has allowed just 10.1 yards per completion (3,143 yards/311 completions) since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 11.8
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 6 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 14 TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 384.0 Passing Yards per game (1,152/3) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 204.0
Middle Tennessee has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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