- Florida is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Florida St
- Florida vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Florida Gators (6-5) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (2-9) on Nov. 30 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.
Florida is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-120).
The Florida vs. Florida State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.
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Florida vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida | -14.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -700 |
| Florida State | +14.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +500 |
Florida vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 85.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Florida has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
Florida State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today
- Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Lawrance Toafili has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ja’Khi Douglas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Malik Benson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Roydell Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Hykeem Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).
- Florida is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 31.03% ROI
- Florida is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
- Florida is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.53% ROI).
- Florida State is 1-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.9 Units / -89.32% ROI
- Florida State is 2-8 when betting the Over for -6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Florida State is 8-2 when betting the Under for +5.8 Units / 52.73% ROI
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
Florida is 12-2 (.857) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .751
Florida is 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .385
Florida is 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .435
Florida is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .724
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
Florida State is 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504
Florida State is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474
Florida State is undefeated (13-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .751
Florida State is undefeated (13-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .782
Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Florida State
Florida State’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 2,024 passing yards in 11 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Florida’s defense has allowed 244.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida State has averaged 13.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida’s RBs has averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS RBs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC to RBs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida’s RBs has averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS RBs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.7% of 279 attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida WRs have averaged 19.5 yards per reception (371 yards/19 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Florida WRs have averaged 18.6 yards per reception (372 yards/20 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9
Florida WRs have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (488 yards/26 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 14.6
Florida Skill Players have averaged 16.9 yards per reception (1,249 yards/74 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5
Florida Skill Players have averaged 15.9 yards per reception (398 yards/25 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 2,024 passing yards in 11 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Florida’s defense has allowed 244.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida State has averaged 13.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s TEs has gained 1,244 yards on 98 receptions (12.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Florida’s defense has allowed 13.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 25 games (just 9.6 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.5
Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (7 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 63%
Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Florida has allowed first downs on 28% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13%
Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State has intercepted 3 of 302 attempts (100.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.2
Florida State has allowed 4.7 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6
Florida State has intercepted 3 of 302 attempts (100.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.0
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
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