Georgia vs Mississippi Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:16 PM

min read

Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin watches a play on the video board during the second half of the team's NCAA college football game against Central Arkansas in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Georgia is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) visit Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) on Nov. 9 in Oxford, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Georgia is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).

The Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

Bet now on Mississippi vs Georgia & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Georgia vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Georgia	-2.5 -120	55.5 -115	-145
Ole Miss	+2.5 +100	55.5 -105	+120

Georgia vs Ole Miss Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia and Mississippi, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia vs Ole Miss Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ole Miss will cover the spread with 59.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Mississippi vs Georgia and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Georgia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)

Ole Miss Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ole Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Ole Miss have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia Player Prop Bets Today

Dominic Lovett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Arian Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)
Trevor Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dillon Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Carson Beck has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 71% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ole Miss players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ole Miss Player Prop Best Bets Today

Henry Parrish Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cayden Lee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaxson Dart has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaxson Dart has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jordan Watkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Georgia is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 7.52% ROI
Georgia is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.45 Units / -28% ROI
Georgia is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.21% ROI

Ole Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Ole Miss is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -0.29% ROI
Ole Miss is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.75 Units / -57.79% ROI
Ole Miss is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Ole Miss

Georgia is undefeated (12-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619

Georgia is 11-1 (.917) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .433

Georgia is 15-1 (.938) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .538

Georgia is 11-1 (.917) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482

Ole Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Ole Miss is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619

Ole Miss is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Ole Miss is 16-2 (.889) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .635

Ole Miss is 15-2 (.882) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .609

Matchup Notes for Georgia vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 18.9% of 302 attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss has averaged 14.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — best among Power 5 skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Ole Miss’s WRs has 333 receptions in 22 games (15.1 per game) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among SEC WRs. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.7 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia has 528 receptions in 22 games (24.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among SEC skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s WRs has 339 receptions in 22 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s TEs has gained 375 yards on 26 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia TEs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia has 528 receptions in 22 games (24.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss Offensive Stats & Trends

Ole Miss WRs have 50 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 15.2 yards per reception (7,092 yards/466 catches) since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.9

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 25 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Georgia allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) last week– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (41 completions/104 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Georgia allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (26 completions/68 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 55%

Georgia allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

Ole Miss sacked opposing QBs on 29% of pass attempts (8/28) last week– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Ole Miss sacked opposing QBs on 29% of pass attempts (8/28) last week– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Ole Miss has averaged 4.4 sacks per game this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

Ole Miss has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 325 carries (81.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8

Ole Miss has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (40/319) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%