Georgia vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ SEC Championship

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisianโ€™s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)
(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 03, 2024, 3:41 PM
  • Texas is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Georgia
  • Georgia vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

The Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (11-1) on Dec. 7 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Georgia vs. Texas Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Georgia vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Georgia+2.5 -10549.5 -110+120
Texas -2.5 -11549.5 -110-140

Georgia vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 57.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.15 Units / 14% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia Player Prop Bets Today

  • Dominic Lovett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Arian Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Dillon Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trevor Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trevor Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jaydon Blue has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Isaiah Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia is 3-9 against the spread this college football season (-6.9 Units / -52.27% ROI).

  • Georgia is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 7.08% ROI
  • Georgia is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.55 Units / -4.18% ROI
  • Georgia is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.53% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

  • Texas is 10-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 0.65% ROI
  • Texas is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI
  • Texas is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Georgia was undefeated (8-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .420

Georgia is undefeated (18-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .638

Georgia is undefeated (17-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .666

Georgia is undefeated (17-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .706

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Texas is 16-1 (.941) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .523

Texas is undefeated (13-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .597

Texas is 9-1 (.900) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .488

Texas is 11-3 (.786) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .427

Matchup Notes for Georgia vs. Texas

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 402 attempts this season — T-8th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s offense has averaged 2.8 passing TDs per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 1.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas has 2.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 2nd-best among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s QBs has thrown for 3,564 passing yards in 12 games (297.0 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 143.5 passing yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.4% of 451 attempts this season — T-26th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.6% of attempts this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia have 297.0 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 143.5 receiving yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia QBs have 14 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia QBs have 24 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia TEs have been targeted 42 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

Georgia TEs have 10 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams

Georgia TEs have 1,043 receiving yards on 1st down since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas WRs have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (776 yards/35 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.4

Texas QBs have 18 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 402 attempts this season — T-8th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas TEs have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.8

Texas Skill Players have 43 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among SEC Teams

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 62 of 776 attempts (8%) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (26 completions/62 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 57%

Georgia has allowed 185.0 Passing Yards per game (4,811/26) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 216.7

Georgia allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (26 completions/68 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 55%

Georgia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 130 of 846 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents has averaged 83.8 Passing Attempts per TD (335 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in FBS; Average: 20.7

Texas opponents has averaged 83.8 Passing Attempts per TD (335 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.3

Texas has allowed just 8.8 yards per completion (1,722 yards/196 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.7

Texas has allowed 92.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best in the SEC; Average: 151.2

Texas opponents has averaged 83.8 Passing Attempts per TD (335 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.